Washington Post on Broadway's Return

[JayElle]

Posted: 7/12/21 at 7:27pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/theater_dance/broadway-comeback-new-york-recovery-covid/2021/07/09/d369adce-d506-11eb-ae54-515e2f63d37d_story.html

Sixth paragraph in article...not very uplifting!

"After an initial box-office boom, insiders say, ticket sales for many shows have leveled off, and Broadway producers need about 90 percent of all seats to be sold to make money. Confided one longtime producer: “I think what’s going to happen is a lot of shows will open, and there just won’t be audience to fill them.” Part of the problem is that international tourists, who make up about one-third of the Broadway audience, are not expected back soon."

Perhaps producers should reduce the prices.  


(It may require a free sign in)

Updated On: 7/12/21 at 07:27 PM

[Fosse76]

Posted: 7/12/21 at 7:53pm

Many shows jumped the gun by re-opening so soon, particularly largely unknown shows or tourist-heavy shows. When I last checked, my very unscientific research saw low demand for shows like Come from Away, The Lion King, The Phantom of the Opera, and Aladdin. Most performances past the first few shows back are no more than 1/3 full. Hamilton, and oddly enough, Wicked, seem to be selling strong.

That said, many shows, despite what producers would have you believe, actually don't have a large advance demand until a couple weeks (or less) prior to the performance. That can be attributed to the fact that maybe the show has been around forever and has lost its must-see appeal, or is simply under the radar of tourists (until they arrive in the city). The lack of tourism, particularly in traditional slow months like September, is a cause for concern, but many tourists also don't care which show they see, so they wait until they arrive to pick one.

But the one thing this article fails to mention is that not a single show (to my knowledge) is selling any tickets at a reduced or discounted price. So many of the tourists who will be coming in September and beyond are simply going to wait until there are discounts. I know a lot of people were complaining about the Harry Potter prices, and I'd be curious to know how many people queued up, saw the prices, and left without buying. That's also has to be happening to other shows. I wonder if there are statistics as to how many tourists specifically wait until they arrive in NY to see what's at TKTS. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 7/12/21 at 8:01pm

Most of my friends who visit me here in NYC just want to see any Broadway show and most of the time just go to TKTS and pick whichever show is listed there. Those willing to wait in a line early in the morning opt to do rush.

I think the shows that normally have a healthy advance with no discounts are those with a headlining star(s) like Music Man or Springsteen.

Kudos for Hamilton and Wicked for being able to get a good advance during this difficult time. Though I also wonder if scalpers bought a good chunk of the Hamilton advance tickets like they used to before the pandemic.

I think we will see more discounts as we get closer to the reopening and may also see most of these shows listed on TKTS day of performance.

Updated On: 7/12/21 at 08:01 PM

[bear88]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 4:34am

I'm more cautious than the average person, as is my partner, but I remain frustrated by the stubborn refusal by theater venues to require proof of vaccination. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, and would be interested in getting tickets to shows. But the main touring house won't tell me what, if anything, will be required of ticket buyers. They just defer to local government agencies. A smaller theater, the San Francisco Playhouse, is requiring proof of vaccination, masks and separates groups by a seat. Feinstein's at the Nikko, a nightclub, also mandates proof of vaccination for its concert performances.

Now I know that the government is telling me that my vaccinated self is totally safe in a crowded indoor venue. And I should feel some confidence where I'm at because vaccination rates are quite high. 

But if I'm a little skittish about local shows, why would I plan a trip to New York City right now?

From Marks' article:

And despite McCollum’s belief that science has made gathering indoors safe again, there is the ever-present anxiety that the pandemic might re-intensify. “Springsteen on Broadway” has a vaccination mandate for all ticket holders, and so far, no problems have been reported. Owing to the virus’s unpredictability, other shows are awaiting government instructions on specific protocols, although the expectation is that masks and social distancing will not be required.

I understand the aversion to proof of vaccination requirements and masks. Who wants to require stuff that might turn off some potential ticket buyers if it's not necessary, or won't be necessary a few months from now? I've been told the unions will force the issue but it hasn't happened yet.

A trip to New York City isn't free, and those customer-friendly ticket policies really only help people in the NYC area. They don't help a tourist from hundreds or thousands of miles away whose trip is built around seeing shows. I'm still hoping to go in the spring of 2022. Hopefully, the virus and its variants will have faded even more or the rules will be more stringent, or both. But that hope doesn't allow me to plan.

I recognize I may be an outlier, and certainly on a board full of people eager to see a show already. But I don't think I am that atypical. Personally, I think it's going to be tough for theaters to fill the seats they need to make things work financially for a while. Hamilton and Wicked may be unstoppable forces, but they're also the most successful musicals of the century. In movie terms, they are the equivalent of the latest Marvel blockbuster or Fast and Furious sequel. (And even Black Widow got a lot of its opening weekend business from people watching from the comfort and safety of their own home.)

I realize Broadway has to start somewhere, but the potential for an ugly fall tucked into Marks' otherwise cheery story seems to be a serious risk. 

Updated On: 7/15/21 at 04:34 AM

[BroadwayRox3588]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 7:41am

bear88 said: "I'm more cautious than the average person, as is my partner, but I remain frustrated by the stubborn refusal by theater venues to require proof of vaccination. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, and would be interested in getting tickets to shows. But the main touring housewon't tell me what, if anything, will be required ofticket buyers. They just defer to local government agencies. A smaller theater, the San Francisco Playhouse,is requiringmasks and separates groupsby a seat Only Feinstein's at the Nikko mandates proof of vaccination for its performances.

Now I know that the government is telling me that my vaccinated self is totally safe in a crowded indoor venue. And I should feel some confidence where I'm at because vaccination rates are quite high.

But if I'm a little skittish about local shows, why would I plan a trip to New York City right now?

From Marks' article:

And despite McCollum’s belief that science has made gathering indoors safe again, there is the ever-present anxiety that the pandemic might re-intensify. “Springsteen on Broadway” has a vaccination mandate for all ticket holders, and so far, no problems have been reported. Owing to the virus’s unpredictability, other shows are awaiting government instructions on specific protocols, although the expectation is that masks and social distancing will not be required.

I understand the aversion toproof of vaccination requirements and masks. Who wants to require stuff that might turn off some potential ticket buyers if it's not necessary, or won't be necessary a few months from now? I've been told the unions will force the issue but it hasn't happened yet.

A trip to New York City isn't free, and those customer-friendly ticket policies really only help people in the NYC area. They don't help a tourist from hundreds or thousands of miles away whose trip is built around seeing shows.I'm still hoping to go in the spring of 2022. Hopefully, the virus and its variants will have faded even more or the rules will be more stringent, or both. But that hope doesn't allow me to plan.

I recognize I may be an outlier, and certainly on a board full of people eager to see a show already. But I don't think I am that atypical. Personally, I think it's going to tough for theaters to fill the seats they need to make things work financially for a while. Hamilton and Wicked may be unstoppable forces, but they're also the most successful musicals of the century. In movie terms, they are the equivalent of the latest Marvel blockbuster or Fast and Furious sequel. (And even Black Widow got a lot of its opening weekend business from people watching from the comfort and safety of their own home.)

I realize Broadway has to start somewhere, but the potential for an ugly fall tucked into Marks' otherwise cheery story seems to be a serious risk."

Bear, I sympathize with your concerns. And please know that the intent of what I'm going to say here is not to discourage caution, but rather to help manage expectations.

At this point, the near-unanimous consensus among epidemiologists is that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay. Whatever that means each individual person, we're going to have to learn how to live with this virus. That will mean different things for different people, and far be it from me to say that any one person's risk aversion is superior to another's.

But one thing I would tell you is that if you're waiting for the virus to "fade away" before you see a show, I'm not sure if you're ever going to see a show again. Again, it's your choice to make, and I wouldn't begrudge you if you were to make that choice. But there will be no fading away of the coronavirus. What may happen (and this is even likely, according to some), is that over time, it will develop into something much less serious, akin to a cold/flu. Remember, the big reason this virus wreaked so much havoc is because literally no one had immunity. As the population builds more immunity, the virus won't disappear, but its impact will be more modest, because our bodies have been trained to fight the virus. Similar to what happened with the 1918 flu pandemic. That flu strain is still circulating to this day. In fact, it even caused another pandemic nearly a century later (the swine flu pandemic of 2009). But the population has sufficient enough levels of immunity to it, that it no longer causes mass death and suffering. Even the 2009 pandemic was immensely modest in comparison to 1918 (as well as our current pandemic).

However, there's one big difference here: this time, we have vaccines. These wonderful vaccines are a way for us to build that immunity, without being infected. Going back to what I said about learning how to live with this virus, the best way to do so is to simply get vaccinated. And if you are a more at-risk person (elderly, immunocompromised), maybe put a mask on in crowded places, just to be extra safe. I don't think any reasonable person would stone you for that.

I realize this isn't exactly the subject of this thread, but I do think it's relevant. Both for theatergoers on Broadway, and around the country. Depending on where you are, your risk if you're vaccinated likely ranges from low to extremely low. But it will never be zero. It never has been.

Updated On: 7/13/21 at 07:41 AM

[ACL2006]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 9:10am

Without any type of discount available for any shows, it's shouldn't be a surprise that most shows aren't selling well. I rarely pay full price and I'm sure a good chunk of any locals don't either. Without the international tourists for sometime, I'm thinking this coming winter we will see a handful of closures.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 9:22am

I think price has little to do either it. People aren't yet ready to

1. Travel
2. Travel to large cities
3. Sit with large groups, inside.

If anyone thought getting an audience back was going to happen instantaneously, they were just fooling themselves.

We see closures EVERY winter, the test will be to see how many.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 10:23am

The points made by both bear and rox are valid considerations. It's going to be a rough ride. The covid risk in New York is extremely low now. (yesterday's data was under 350 hospitalized and 1 death in the entire state, numbers that are a pittance compared to the risk of crossing the street, for instance.) We each have to warm to that risk, or not. Is that what is driving the weak box offices? Yes but as I learned many years ago from one of the eminences of this business, focusing on a single factor in assessing market is a fool's errand. It's everything always.

[broadfan327]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 10:37am

I am a local, and I am waiting for the discounts as well, as I normally do.  I only bought a ticket to The Music Man, as discounts will be nonexistent for that show.  The brief searching for tickets to shows I want to see showed a lot of availability in the winter months. 

[LizzieCurry]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 11:08am

dramamama611 said: "I think price has little to do either it. People aren't yet ready to

1. Travel
2. Travel to large cities
3. Sit with large groups, inside.

If anyone thought getting an audience back was going to happen instantaneously, they were just fooling themselves.

We see closures EVERY winter, the test will be to see how many."

Yep. I'm local, and obviously I'm missing theatre, but maybe not as much as I'd anticipated I would/TPTB would hope I would... but I haven't bought any tickets to any indoor events myself. The only thing I know I'm seeing is Mormon in November and that's because a friend surprised me for my birthday. I assume I'll be at that comfort level by then! (I've gone to one backyard party that was partially indoors during a rainstorm, but that's probably the longest I've been inside a building unmasked and that wasn't part of an errand since March 2020.)

[Phantom4ever]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 11:24am

People are afraid to travel?  The travel industry is bursting at the seams because it can't handle the crush of people traveling right now.  People are beyond ready to travel.  

Other than Hamilton and I guess Wicked, the average Broadway ticket buyer is not going to be purchasing a weeknight ticket to Phantom in November four months ahead of time, pandemic or no pandemic. 

Something that has not gotten much attention on this board is the perceived lawlessness of New York City right now. Everything the NY Post publishes is about how the city is totally overrun by criminals, homeless people, and people in need of inpatient mental health care. 

Yes I know it's not nearly as bad as the Post paints it to be, but that is the narrative that's out there right now. 

Another thing is that when they did that one night event at the St. James for first responders, the headlines screamed "BROADWAY IS BACK!" so people are under the impression Broadway is open for business and there is no rush to get tickets. 

It's worth noting too that many shows are not doing 8 perfs a week for sometime either. Chicago it seems is only doing weekends until what, January?  Seems that the producers know very well that it is going to still be months if not a year or two before Broadway is even somewhat healthy.  

And we should fully expect for some shows to shut down because somebody in the cast had a positive test, which will result in lots of soulsearching and more "I guess you want people to die so you can attend Broadway" type of thinking so let's prepare ourselves. 

[LizzieCurry]

Posted: 7/13/21 at 11:31am

Phantom4ever said: "People are afraid to travel? The travel industry is bursting at the seams because it can't handle the crush of people traveling right now. People are beyond ready to travel."

Two things can be true. People are afraid to travel. Other people cannot wait to travel. I won't be leaving the tri-state area until next month. First time since March 2020. My fully vaccinated parents, who have been to every continent, haven't gone anywhere and are not planning anything until 2022. I'm from California and know multiple people who've already gone to Hawaii (sometimes twice) since April or May. If you walk around midtown you'll see all sorts of American tourists.

[Dolly80]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 2:05am

With the exception of a very few shows, Moulin Rouge, Wicked, Hamilton- you can easily get tickets at the last minute for everything else, often reduced. It’s no surprise that bookings are low.
It will take a long time for consumer confidence to come back. And those all important tourists.

And as someone alluded to- the constant reports of NYC’s crime levels rising and rising is a real issue, from an outsiders point of view, based on what I’ve read, it sounds like NYC is a mess right now.

[Patti LuPone FANatic]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 10:26am

I am very much looking forward to returning to NYC from Sept. 17-20, 2021.  I am somewhat anxious about flying again.  I will wear a face mask / face shield if need be.  Although I am concerned about the flying and being inside a Broadway theatre once more, there is another issue that I will be very much aware of.  I subscribe to the NYT and NY Daily News online editions.  It's unfortunate that crime seems to be increasing all over NYC.  In years past, I have not had any issues with personal security.  However, I plan to be extra cautious when walking the streets of Midtown Manhattan. I also thought that Sept. would be a good time for a trip, in case something happened later on in the fall /winter.  

[Theater3232]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 11:12am

Even though I'm fully vaccinated, I don't feel comfortable returning to indoor spaces yet, considering breakthrough cases and havoc spreading in Europe (https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variants-rise-plunges-europe-into-uncertainty-and-offers-a-warning-to-the-us-090002409.html, https://news.yahoo.com/6-fully-vaccinated-people-caught-154610774.html).

Also, there are only very few theater shows I'm excited about seeing, since so many other new shows are way too "heavy" for me.  I want some lighthearted fluff to enjoy.  Only a few would I consider: How I Learned to Drive (MTC), Morning Sun (MTC), Take Me Out (2ST), Birthday Candles (Roundabout), Kimberly Akimbo (Atlantic), The Bedwetter (Atlantic).

A friend from Long Island has been seeing theater for over 20 years and he took a recent trip into Penn Station via LIRR and was horrified at what he saw in NYC - people screaming at the top of their lungs, aggressively panhandling from him, etc.  He felt very unsafe and said he won't be returning and won't be bringing his family (for the first time in 20 years).

I wish these theater owners luck, but I can't see how the 100+ shows that are opening over the next several months will perform.  Where is the demand?  Is it only from the TDF crowd (discount prices) who post here?  That can't financially sustain Broadway.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 11:44am

Where is the demand? Is it only from the TDF crowd (discount prices) who post here? That can't financially sustain Broadway.

I think there is great demand from September to around Christmas, and then it does wain. But, that can always change. Personally, I have only used TDF once, and it was not a good seat. Im very particular about exactly where I sit, and it usually falls into the premium category. With everything being shut down for more than a year, I saved up a nice entertainment budget, so I dont mind paying these prices at all. And no, I do not think just the TDF crowd post here but joining a theater message board for discounts is pretty common. And I agree, if people only bought extremely cheap tickets to shows they would all be closed in a matter of months. 

Many people in the tri-state are rich or wealthy compared to the rest of the country. And, according to the Broadway League, the average annual household income of the Broadway theatregoer was $261,000, which makes sense since it's become quite the luxury item.

I'm sorry your friend experienced that, crime is up in NYC which may make people stay home for now, but things will hopefully improve when things are completely normal again by Fall unless Delta shuts us down again. The horror. 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:01pm

A big reason Airlines are struggling dealing with the surge in travel has more to do with them not being back to full schedules mixed with not having enough staff to deal with it.

I traveled recently and had four flight scheduled (a connection each way) only ONE of those flights happened as scheduled

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:10pm

Actually and factually, overall demand is soft for the fall so contrary prognostications are more in the nature of wishful thinking. A large part of the supply is driven by grants, and that rather than demand is what's driving so many/too many shows to open/reopen. Unless demand picks up, that well will run dry and the winter will be brutal. It may take a long time to recover from this phenomenon. Tri-staters will support theatre but there is a severe limit on the extent to which they will line up to see evergreens. (The exception is Wicked, which has an evergreen local audience.) Regarding crime, as someone who walks around all the time, and rides the subway often, I am not seeing it. Most of it is not in areas I travel, or that most tourists will travel. It is largely fueled by the Murdoch empire, for political reasons. Yes there are random acts of violence, as there always have been, but felonious assaults (and again, citywide) are basically flat and it is important to remember that same month comparisons to last year are misleading since we were still in a very stunted lifestyle. I am not trying to minimize the problems, but I am trying to put them in context. Also, exhibitions of mental illness, while scary and in desperate need of being addressed, are not often crimes. Everyone has to find their own comfort level but context is important. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:19pm

I just read this article from NY Times. I can see how rising crime may deter tourists and other folks living in NYC suburbs from visiting the city.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/nyregion/homeless-hotels-protests.html

"But the hotels, many of them concentrated in the Manhattan neighborhoods of Hell’s Kitchen and Chelsea, have been magnets for community opposition since the program started. Neighbors complain that hotel residents use drugs, loiter, steal from stores and harass passers-by."

 

[LizzieCurry]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:23pm

HogansHero said: "Yes there are random acts of violence, as there always have been, but felonious assaults (and again, citywide) are basically flat and it is important to remember that same month comparisons to last year are misleading since we were still in a very stunted lifestyle. I am not trying to minimize the problems, but I am trying to put them in context. Also, exhibitions of mental illness, while scary and in desperate need of being addressed, are not often crimes. Everyone has to find their own comfort level but context is important."

This, and visibility is different. Without crowds and without that type of 2019-level physical activity outside, it’s MUCH easier to spot those who are struggling.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:34pm

This January will likely be the goriest bloodbath Broadway has seen in many, many years. I can already hear the death knells chiming for most of B'way's current tenants - and I'm sure there will be some surprises on that list of shows.

It would take some kind of miracle for this to not happen. Tourists have to show up in droves, which probs won't happen for another year or two (I am saying there will be tourists visiting NYC once Broadway reopens at 100% capacity, of course, but not quite enough to sustain your average show for a healthy period of time).

Updated On: 7/14/21 at 12:34 PM

[JSquared2]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 12:39pm

Theater3232 said: "Even though I'm fully vaccinated, I don't feel comfortable returning to indoor spaces yet, considering breakthrough cases and havoc spreading in Europe (https://news.yahoo.com/delta-variants-rise-plunges-europe-into-uncertainty-and-offers-a-warning-to-the-us-090002409.html, https://news.yahoo.com/6-fully-vaccinated-people-caught-154610774.html).

Also, there are only very few theater shows I'm excited about seeing, since so many other new shows are way too "heavy" for me. I want some lighthearted fluff to enjoy. Only a few would I consider: How I Learned to Drive (MTC), Morning Sun (MTC), Take Me Out (2ST), Birthday Candles (Roundabout), Kimberly Akimbo (Atlantic), The Bedwetter (Atlantic).

A friend from Long Island has been seeing theater for over 20 years and he took a recent trip into Penn Station via LIRR and was horrified at what he saw in NYC - people screaming at the top of their lungs, aggressively panhandling from him, etc. He felt very unsafe and said he won't be returning and won't be bringing his family (for the first time in 20 years).

I wish these theater owners luck, but I can't see how the 100+ shows that are opening over the next several months will perform. Where is the demand? Is it only from the TDF crowd (discount prices)

who post here? That can't financially sustain Broadway."

Your hyperbole does you no favors.  If your Long Island friend was "horrified" by seeing panhandlers and some mentally ill people -- he can't have been a very frequent NYC visitor pre-Covid.  


Also "100+ shows"??  That's quite some feat considering we only have 41 Broadway theaters to fill!  Even if you're lumping in off and off-off Bway, how is that different than the # of shows that were around pre-Covid?  Any off and off-off have never been for the tourists anyway. Some will run and many will not -- just as it's always been.

 

Updated On: 7/14/21 at 12:39 PM

[LexiGirl]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 1:21pm

I live in Atlanta and have NYC trips lined up for October, early December, and late January, mostly to see Broadway shows. I think I’ll feel safer in NYC than Atlanta right now, so I’m not worried about it. When I’m solo, I stick to hotels in the theatre district, pay attention when I’m walking, and take cabs instead of the subway to places where I might feel less comfortable. The only thing I’m worried about at this point is reports of lack of cabs (which I hope will improve over the coming months) and having to deal with my family members who watch Fox News all day long worried about me being there, when again, I do feel like the odds of something happening to me in Atlanta are far worse. I also am picky about where I sit, so am buying premium tickets now for all three trips. I’m just waiting on Caroline, or Change to go on sale to the public and Flying Over Sunset to announce when they go on sale, so that I can finalize everything.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 1:58pm

In talking to a Lincoln Center rep, they said Flying Over Sunset tickets will be going on sale "in a few weeks". So, hopefully that is correct. It's a brand new musical opening up after 18 months of Broadway being dark, so I really, really hope it succeeds despite no one being familiar with it. 

[LexiGirl]

Posted: 7/14/21 at 2:12pm

Sutton Ross said: "In talking to a Lincoln Center rep, they said Flying Over Sunset tickets will be going on sale "in a few weeks". So, hopefully that is correct. It's a brand new musical opening up after 18 months of Broadway being dark, so I really, really hope it succeeds despite no one being familiar with it."

Thanks for sharing, Sutton! I’m keeping a few spots open for it before buying anything else and can extend my trip earlier/later, if needed. So I’ll just continue to be patient!