The HFPA has always been a mess. They usually try to predict what will win the Oscar, but this year, I really doubt that happens. Bohemian Rhapsody was atrocious, not to mention it was directed by a pedophile.
A Star is Born and Roma are the two films that have hit all of the precursors, and most importantly, the guilds, eg: SAG, PGA, DGA, and BAFTA to boot. Best Picture is between those two. And with the year that Bradley Cooper had, I cannot see him going home empty handed. Best Picture may be his best shot if Rami Malek is indeed the front runner for Actor, with Alfonso Cuaron allegedly inching towards his second Best Director Academy Award.