Can Broadway really handle these many openings this Fall?

[nycward]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 1:39pm

So am I the only one who questions the wisdom of reopening 20 some odd musicals this autumn? Considering that the majority of these are now being boosted by the tourist trade do we really think that New York will suddenly be back in full swing this Fall? I'm fearful of complications filling these houses.Thoughts?

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 1:44pm

I was thinking about this as well. People are ready now. I cannot imagine how many more people will be ready four months from now. I honestly think tourism will be huge from September on. Tickets are selling really well for a lot of shows I've checked out, and I know those people are not all locals. 

I think it will be organized and they will be ready. 

[GiantsInTheSky2]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 1:47pm

nycward said: "do we really think that New York will suddenly be back in full swing this fall?"

I mean, most restrictions are being lifted next Wednesday and the “plan” is to fully reopen the city July 1st. While I’m very hesitant myself, if this goes according to plan, there’s little reason to think that the city wouldn’t be in full swing in the fall. That is a big IF.

My theory is that there’s going to be a few hiccups that set things back, including Broadway shows. But we’ll see.

Edit to add: I think the decision to reopen shows all around the same time was a poor choice. I liked Patti‘s idea of opening the bigger shows first and then adding more in Q1 of 2022. 

Updated On: 5/11/21 at 01:47 PM

[Phantom4ever]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 1:48pm

So many other tourists traps and areas are jam packed all over the country. Every article in travel sections is about pent up demand to travel, see things, do stuff again. Will there be busloads of tri-state high school students and throngs of international tourists at these shows this fall?  No. But there will be tri-state theater fans and some domestic tourism. Everybody will jump on Broadway grosses as an example that Broadway jumped the gun if Hamilton's grosses drop 10% the second week back. We should expect at least another year before Broadway is back to breaking records. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:05pm

From a safety standpoint, I don't think there's much of a difference between 10 shows opening in the fall and 20 shows opening in the fall.  While yes, more shows bring more tourists, I don't think it's nearly as much of a jump as some folks think it is (meaning, I think that for the most part the same people who hear "Broadway's open with 20 shows, let's go visit" are the same ones who would respond "Broadway's open with 10 shows, let's go visit". ) And it's also important to remember that each individual theatre is its own entity with its own stringent health and safety protocols, so as far as the experience in each theatre itself, it shouldn't change regardless of how many shows are open (versus, say, something like a convention center expo that was expecting 50 booths and now suddenly has 200 so has to cram everything closer together and throw away some of their previous ideas regarding safety).

With that said, I'm not at all convinced that Broadway can financially handle these many openings this fall.  Tickets are selling great for now and they will for at least the first 3-4 months.  But once that initial rush dies down, I'm pessimistic that a lot of these shows will be able to sustain.  But hopefully I'm wrong on that part.

Updated On: 5/11/21 at 02:05 PM

[BrodyFosse123]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:20pm

Also, you need to consider that all the shows re-opening are not doing full 8 performances a week and many aren’t doing matinee performances. Most shows are doing 5 performances a week.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:24pm

I've only seen three shows that have announced their reopening date that aren't doing 8 shows a week. They are: Chicago, Dear Evan Hansen and Moulin Rouge. Though two of those three haven't made an announcement yet. The locals will definitely return right away.

In my opinion, I think the staggered reopenings will work. My main worry is that by January their will be a ton of closures.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:27pm

The first few performances of these shows are selling very well, but after two or three of the first performances, there is very large drop-off for many, if not most, of them. It's still early, so that can obviously change, but a lot of shows don't sell until much closer to the performance date (when tourists finally start planning their itineraries). The fall is already a slow time, and walk-up ticket sales from tourists are far from guaranteed. It's a wait-and-see game.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:46pm

In sales terms, yes. 
People are gonna flock to it.

[stoptheworld38]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:52pm

When is DEH reopening? I haven’t seen any announcement.

[MerchPhan]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 2:59pm

I'll be curious to see how many of the shows that have never appeared on TKTS will make an appearance..

[unclevictor]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 3:00pm

I think it can at 1st...and then... who knows?
Essentially all the shows have to open at the same time. It’s competition. If you’re show isn’t open, then you’re not making any $$, and the $$ is going to another show.

[rkade21]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 3:10pm

They are doing it as smartly as they can, with shows woth the heaviest coffers going first… it will still depend on a lot of factors, which unfortunately includes (largely) Republicans acting in their own best interest and the best interests of their fellow citizens…. Something they are not exactly skilled in…

[joevitus]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 3:19pm

I don't understand what asking the question accomplishes. Can Broadway handle this many openings? Can it handle being barely any openings? Which is worse? All we can do is shrug. We're in no man's land and trying to muddle through, hoping enough people are vaccinated and a mutation doesn't come along that shuts everything down again. All we can say is that the shows that can open, will open, those that can't, won't, and some may attract crowds or crowds may stay away. It's all a gamble, but there isn't anything to do but gamble. I think advanced sales so far shows many people are desperate to be in a theater again, and that business will be healthy and the more shows the better, but that's totally an assumption on my part, as assumptions are all we can work with. There are no examples to follow, this is untrodden ground. We'll see.

[benfox2]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 3:49pm

I agree with Joe actually. I think we won't be able to say one way or another until shows actually reopen. There's a pent up amount of interest that we haven't seen in years for Broadway, but at the same time we still have a lot of hesitancy towards travel. It's a waiting game more than anything else.

[Wick3]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 3:52pm

I actually thought one or two shows could have opened in August or even July if they were allowed 100% capacity. I only say that since a good number of tourists and families come to nyc in the summer.

Before the pandemic, I always felt Sept to mid-Nov have always been ‘slow’ on Broadway in terms of ticket sales but who knows what it will be like this year.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 4:31pm

I have been very concerned about this. I have written for months about what I thought would be a rational strategy. (Originally I said 8 shows, I upped it to 12.) Instead we have bedlam. I pray we don't have a bloodbath but I don't see how a market develops for all of these shows or even the number we would typically see opening and closing. I will be the happiest person on earth if I am proven wrong, but I think we will see a lot of closures and I worry that it is going to take the wind out of the sails of the recovery. 

[nycward]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 4:38pm

I agree with Hogan on this. I'm so looking forward to be wrong on this but considering the economics of a commercial venture I think the tourist industry won't really hit its stride until mid 22. There is a lot out there that talks about that. We just have to trust the producers that they feel something that I don't.

[unclevictor]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 4:55pm

Wow I actually agree with Hogan on this one. Hope he’s wrong but I doubt it

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 5:39pm

As excited as I am to see all these shows reopen in the fall, I am somewhat nervous because I feel that about 3/4 of those shows may end up closing by January because of a lack of demand. Hopefully ticket buyers can prove me wrong and there is a big demand for live events following the pandemic.

[GiantsInTheSky2]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:22pm

stoptheworld38 said: "When is DEH reopening? I haven’t seen any announcement. "

I haven’t seen any announcement, but Telecharge has tickets available starting December 11th. 

[Theater3232]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:32pm

I'd thought we'd see just a small handful, but it seems like most shows want to open again by autumn. Is there really that much demand? Many locals are either: teleworking so commuting to Midtown is more inconvenient, have already seen the "big name" shows like Lion King and don't want to see them again, out of work so no money to see shows, or have fear of COVID from train/theater/packed spaces. As for tourists, there are some who'd like a vaccine mandate, but many others who would strongly oppose it and not attend. Are so many shows viable, so soon?

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:35pm

Unless Broadway can figure out how to operate at 50 to 60% capacity, which I imagine will be the norm for at least the first six months, I don’t see how all the shows are going to make a go of it. I still can’t believe there hasn’t been talk about some temporary across-the-board union concessions. It just seems inevitable to making a return actually attainable...

[RippedMan]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:42pm

I'd think shows like "Company" might do the best as they are kind of perfect for the local NYC theater-goer. Small-ish house, stacked cast of well-known stage actors, etc. I'd think it would appeal to the NYCer. 

But the bigger shows might struggle after the first month. I mean, are big families coming into town to see The Lion King and Aladdin? Who knows. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:49pm

RippedMan said: "I'd think shows like "Company" might do the best as they are kind of perfect for the local NYC theater-goer. Small-ish house, stacked cast of well-known stage actors, etc. I'd think it would appeal to the NYCer.

But the bigger shows might struggle after the first month. I mean, are big families coming into town to see The Lion King and Aladdin? Who knows."

I think you are right on target.