FORBES on the bleakness of Broadway box office right now: Some Broadway shows are grossing under $100K per week

This piece from Lee Seymour might be the bleakest assessment I've read of the current Broadway landscape. As expected, it's really bad for all but the biggest hits. Here are some highlights from the piece:

 

THE GOOD:

– At Six, the average ticket price is around $200, with premium seats topping out at $499.

– General consensus among industry veterans is that Wicked, Hamilton, The Lion King, Hadestown, and Company are all in strong financial health.

– The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday should give most shows a boost, especially now that international travel restrictions have been eased; overseas tourists once accounted for one-fifth of Broadway buyers. And the Christmas-New-Years frame should be even better.

 

THE BAD:

– “Joyless,” is how one seasoned producer described the industry for those not working on megahits. “We’re all exhausted. And winter’s only going to be worse, unless you’re one of, like, seven shows. I’ve seen numbers for others, and some aren’t even grossing six figures. It’s awful.”

– Several producers who have been waiting to launch new plays have decided to hold off even longer, aiming for the fall of 2022 rather than the spring. “I’ve seen enough,” said one. “We can’t keep pretending that we’re back to normal. The audience just isn’t there yet for a lot of us. There is absolutely no reason not to postpone until the market signals it’s ready.”

– “This winter will be bad,” said one producer attached to several shows aiming for Broadway in 2022. “A lot of theaters will be sitting empty. So let them sit. We all need to reflect and be super intentional about our plans. We can’t rush into the spring the way a lot of us rushed into the fall.”

– Buyers are more discerning about how they emerge from their pandemic shells. If they can’t get a ticket to Hamilton, they’re not going to pivot and see Diana instead, simply because it’s also on Broadway.

As expected, the juggernauts are doing well. The shows likely in danger are Diana, Mrs. Doubtfire, TINA, Chicago, Ain't Too Proud, Girl From the North Country, Mockingbird, plus any plays.

Good thing Jeremy will save Broadway with “Slave Play” sure to sell out the Wilson every night. 

nothing in that article that has not been rehearsed here repeatedly. "No news is no news."

Disturbing news yet not totally unexpected. I was thinking of heading to NYC Nov 28-30 for my birthday. Hotel prices were much higher than I expected and ticket prices for matinees on Sunday were pretty steep for shows I’m on the fence about. 

barcelona20 said: "I wonder if Six will have the highest ROI ever for a Broadway show"

That's pretty impossible to calculate. But SIX will likely recoup by the end of 2021, a major feat for the post-COVID world. The NYT reported in 2020 that it cost $5M to mount, and the FORBES piece indicates it's making ~$1.7M a week at the box office.

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "barcelona20 said: "I wonder if Six will have the highest ROI ever for a Broadway show"

That's pretty impossible to calculate. But SIX will likely recoup by the end of 2021, a major feat for the post-COVID world. The NYT reported in 2020 that it cost $5M to mount, and the FORBES piece indicates it's making ~$1.7M a week at the box office."

Wow, that's incredible if it cost $5m to mount. Amazing how a show with virtually no sets and a small cast and orchestra costs $5m these days.

It hurts to see this assessment but it’s needed and totally unsurprising by any stretch. Going into any Broadway theatre, you will either see a full house or barely half full.

Some Examples:

Chicken & Biscuits - Full during an early preview, but barely 35% full during a recent Saturday night performance. Status: Closing November 28th

Ain’t Too Proud - Nearly full house on a Thursday night, thought the base tickets were considerably lower than they used to be (Rear Mezz was $39). It’s also a safe option for the bridge and tunnel crowd, so they may hold up on that.

American Utopia - Saturday matinee. Balcony is closed but the rest of the house, save for some extreme sides of the mezzanine, were full. It’s running through March and likely cheaper than most to run, but having the simulcast on HBO Max could hurt it.

SIX - Full house on a Monday night and the tickets are $$$$. Goes without saying this one is safe for a LOOOOOONG time.

I also saw Girl From The North Country and Thoughts of a Colored Man, but I don’t have a good enough idea to make an assessment. I do know the latter recently did a HUUUGEE media push on multiple talk shows in NYC, but I doubt it helped in a lifesaving capacity. Even one of the cast told me that “you should probably get back before January” when I said I wanted to come see it again.

Every producer has their own philosophy on papering. One school of thought is that it's very hard to bring your ticket prices back up when you start papering, and it doesn't help WOM that much. Or, as with TINA, they're trying to show that "the only price available is full-price."

It's likely that many shows are papering to friends & family of the production, instead of through a service.

SharksVsJets said: "I haven't seen any mention of Come From Away. Does anyone know how it's doing?"

It is currently on TDF. Looking at this week on Telecharge, the sides and rear of the orchestra have a lot of inventory, and the mezz is maybe 10% full. So, not great...but not as dire as some other shows. It appears there is still an appetite for some full-priced and premium tickets.

The filmed version kills repeat viewing, I think. I might have considered going back because I saw it early in the run, but then I watched it on Apple TV+. I don't need to see it live again.

thou the article doesn't mention either production specifically, just based on my own personal assessments while visiting both shows lately, i would assume --

   Moulin Rouge is most definitely in a nice financially sound position

   Jagged Little Pill.......... not so much

Is Slave Play coming back because they got this SVG grant money? What other reason would it come back? I'm so confused by it all! (I do hope it will be running so I can finally see it when I'm in NY in February). 

BwayStarlette said: "Is Slave Play coming back because they got this SVG grant money? What other reason would it come back? I'm so confused by it all! (I do hope it will be running so I can finally see it when I'm in NY in February)."

There is ZERO sane financial reason why Slave Play is reopening, considering it didn't make money its first time around and won no Tony Awards (not that the Tonys would have made a major impact on its sales). I don't believe they got SVOG money? It had already closed when Broadway shut down.

In any event, it will not be running when you come to NY in February. It is a strictly limited two-month run through January 23. FUNNY GIRL is the August Wilson Theatre's next tenant.