I'm a little confused by the question. Is it a guarantee of what I think will win, as in, "If you had to bet a million dollars on something or someone winning a Tony award, who or what would it be?"
Or is it: If you could guarantee a win by a person or show because you think they/it really deserves the honor, what would you pick?"
If it's the first, there are many heavy favorites.Hello, Dolly in Best Revival, Bette Midler, Kevin Kline, and almost certainly Ben Platt.
If it's the latter, that's a more interesting question, even though - in my case - I certainly haven't seen everything nominated so I don't feel qualified. But I can't help feeling it would be good for Broadway if Rachel Chavkin won Best Director and Dave Malloy didn't go home empty-handed for Great Comet. I'm not mentioning some of the technical categories, because it will probably win those and most people don't care much about them.
Chavkin's work as a director in Great Comet is truly extraordinary, and I hope it's rewarded with a Tony. Malloy created the whole thing, and while I know people are divided on the score, there was something thrilling about the ambition and thought he put into that show. I hope they win, even if Malloy only gets orchestrations. That would be good for Broadway, even if most of the awards are dominated by Dear Evan Hansen, Hello, Dolly, and Come From Away.