While I think that Merle Dandrige is deserving of a nomination, I do believe the voter's may look down on her for leaving the show so quickly, not just that she left it at all.
As for Mean Girls, I think they are going to be BIG competition for most nominations (not necessarily wins)
I think they have:
Musical
Lead Actress (Taylor over Erika if they are both placed in leading)
Featured Actress (I believe 3 of them could get in, Ashley, Kate and either Kerry or Barrett) with Lea Salonga and Lindsay Mendez being the other two
Featured Actor
Maybe Director
Choreography
Lighting
Set Design
Book
Score
That's 12 nominations.. I think the only ones they really have a shot at winning is Featured Actress, Featured Actor, Book, Lighting, and Choreography.
I'm worried about Spongebob though.. I think its the best NEW musical of the season, but I feel as though people will be hesitant to award it Tony Awards. Having seen the performances, I believe that Ethan Slater SHOULD win the Tony, but I wouldnt be upset if Hadden-Paton won.