Very little actual information is coming out of either the AMPTP or the WGA on the negotiations and most coverage seems to purport that if the strike continues through the WGA expiration (and the directors don't set a framework for a resolution faster) the most likely resolution would be in time to save Sept's Emmy Awards.
So, with any potential inside information highly unlikely, and the League/CBS not announcing anything yet, it's all speculation.
As I see it, the Tony Awards are two VERY different beasts:
1) A Variety Telecast that gets a little less than 4 million viewers;
2) An Award Presentation that supports an entire industry's ability to market its product.
Both can exist without each other and I suspect there's a solid argument to start distancing the two anyway as a big, splashy, BROADWAY special would probably get more viewers than an award show (especially if it were in the fall). The Little Mermaid Live! achieved more than double what last year's Tony Awards did (9.8 million viewers as opposed to 3.9 million viewers).
Without being as snarky as to say: if a tree falls in a forrest... the value of a Tony (to a show) seems to be how much money you can put behind the marketing of that Tony, not the ceremony or the telecast itself.
Perhaps, the believable outcome is that the ceremony still occurs, it's not televised, and a big splashy special gets produced when the climate allows for it (if at all).
Looking at Shucked: Shucked's Today Show appearances had the energy of "NINE TONY NOMINATIONS" every time someone opened their mouth, two performances, and probably were seen by the 2.85 million viewers that Today averaged the week before in an environment that wasn't competitive with other shows and happened four payrolls sooner. Is an inclusion in a telecast seen by a million more people who know the show already with four other show performing and competing better for ticket sales? I would argue, probably not. (Not that other tv opportunities would factor into ANYONE's decision.) But they sure would seem to be able to get some serious ad mileage out of having won any number of them without the telecast happening.
I'll be very curious, but I certainly wouldn't argue over my position without ANY actual information made public by ANY of the relevant parties.
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As far as the theatrical unions "having the WGA's back"... Iatse (and the other unions with venue specific CBAs don't even stand up for their sibling union tours in HIGHLY unionized houses. The Dolby is a HIGHLY unionized house where even non-union musicians must be replaced by local union musicians and its currently hosting the non-Equity Hairspray on subscription. If Iatse (or AFM or the others) won't support Equity's efforts to protect Equity tours in a 3,300-seat theater in a city where rights are traditionally still considered First-Class..... it seems highly suspect that they, theoretically, would do much to support this strike. Asking them to cross the line, however.....
Updated On: 5/8/23 at 07:23 PM