I have to be honest--I am predicting the worst. I think it's better to predict the worst than get our hopes up. I think every single Broadway show will be forced to close, especially the ones who rely on tourism, because tourism to NYC is essentially dead until further notice. It will take a very long time to shake the public's perception of NYC as anything other than the hotbed of this godforsaken pandemic--added on with the fact that every pandemic specialist has suggested we'll be hit harder in the fall, which I believe is an accurate prediction. Here's the other problem--unless the physical theaters themselves have paid off their mortgages (I'm sure this is on public record somewhere of what theaters have and havent paid off their mortgages but idk where), they rely on those shows for their payments. This is why shows flop: if they can't pay their rent to the theater, they're done. It's such a larger picture thing to me. If the theaters themselves can't keep the lights on, they will close and sit vacant for a while.
And to be honest, the theatres I really worry about are the non-commercial Off Broadway and Off Off Venues that won't benefit from something like a bailout (assuming Broadway will even get a bailout). These are the venues that will shutter the fastest, and have the slowest comeback and are invaluable to the industry in NYC. Do you guys know how many young artists come to NYC and rely on venues like The Tank, Dixon Place, La Mama, Theater for The New City, The Kraine and Under St. Marks? These are the places that really need our help and support. What we saw with UCB closing is just the first domino falling--I think we could see some real giants start to fall like Roundabout and NY Theatre Workshop. Commercial Off Broadway could suffer just as hard.
That being said, I think the ones who are actually going to flourish are the nomadic companies that never had theaters to begin with. Companies like these who will do theatre where ever and when ever with just clip lights and suitcases of props and costumes--the DIY model--will adapt in ways that I think will shock us all. I think we could see a fascinating renaissance of Off-Off Broadway DIY work much like in the 70's with things like the Theatre of the Ridiculous. And while this is unlikely to happen, I do believe if Equity/SDC/DGA/IATSE/United Scenic Artists/American Federation of Musicians could reach an agreement about professionally filming shows with just the cast, musicians and production team on a very closed set if there's a window of time when the storm breaks from summer to fall and release them at semi-accessible price point (maybe $20?) then they might stand a better chance at re-opening.
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