Let it begin
I’ll start , get rid of the crap called Back To The Future
Broadway Star Joined: 10/14/21
I can't imagine The Heart of Rock and Roll is much longer for this world after this morning.
I think the only shows in immediate danger are Lempicka and Heart of Rock and Roll. I don't expect them to make it to Tonys night but they were already in trouble.
I think The Notebook could be next after that.
Suffs will surely make it to Tony night but I don't know if it'll last through the summer.
Despite the lack of Tony love, I expect Gatsby, BTTF and Tommy to at least run through the summer.
rosscoe(au) said: "Let it begin
I’ll start , get rid of the crap called Back To The Future"
Interesting one to start with. I'm sure there's no agenda to this thread at all. Nope. Not one bit.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/2/15
Wow beat me to it.
im going to say
heart of rock and roll - closes within the next 21 days
lempicka - closes within the next 21 days
suffs - closes after july 4 weekend
great Gatsby - makes it through the summer. But not the year.
back to the future - makes it through to September long weekend
the notebook- closes by September long weekend
water for elephants - closes in January
the wiz - closes by September long weekend
Tommy closes out September long weekend
Hell’s Kitchen - doesn’t make it a year
the only one I really see having staying power is The Outsiders. It kind of is building that newsies fan base
Broadway Star Joined: 7/12/22
"Wow beat me to it. im going to say heart of rock and roll - closes within the next 21 days lempicka - closes within the next 21 days suffs - closes after july 4 weekend great Gatsby - makes it through the summer. But not the year. back to the future - makes it through to September long weekend the notebook- closes by September long weekend water for elephants - closes in January the wiz - closes by September long weekend Tommy closes out September long weekend Hell’s Kitchen - doesn’t make it a year the only one I really see having staying power is The Outsiders. It kind of is building that newsies fan base"
This is kind of sad. Shows just open and seems the majority will not even last 6 months. Even Tony award winner for "Best Musical" is barely running much more than a year in most cases lately.
Broadway Star Joined: 8/26/19
rosscoe(au) said: "Let it begin
I’ll start , get rid of the crap called Back To The Future"
I think it should stay. It's a show that reliably attracts families with grown kids/teens. It's a "safe" choice for tourists families and good business for the Broadway overall. There are normally not that many shows like this running on any given day, except The Lion King and Aladdin.
Broadway Star Joined: 6/29/14
none of these new musicals are of Hadestown caliber. Probably all will close within a year.
yyys said: "none of these new musicals are of Hadestown caliber. Probably all will close within a year."
Wow, I'm impressed you were able to see them all already.
The only two shows who will be posting notices in the immediate future are Heart of Rock and Roll and Lempicka.
Heart will have a rough day: a Tony shutout and then another dismal gross report later. It could announce a closure sometime between today and end of the week.
Lempicka will likely attempt an underdog campaign and try to hold on for a few more weeks. The few nominations it got won't turn it around and it's not going to win them, but the producers seem willing to throw money at it.
Everything else seems fine for at least through the summer.
Theatrefanboy1 said: "Wow beat me to it.
im going to say
heart of rock and roll - closes within the next 21 days
lempicka - closes within the next 21 days
suffs - closes after july 4 weekend
great Gatsby - makes it through the summer. But not the year.
back to the future - makes it through to September long weekend
the notebook- closes by September long weekend
water for elephants - closes in January
the wiz - closes by September long weekend
Tommy closes out September long weekend
Hell’s Kitchen - doesn’t make it a year
the only one I really see having staying power is The Outsiders. It kind of is building that newsies fan base"
I think Lempicka got a major lifeboat with 3 Tony nominations to get them at least to the ceremony. HoR&R will be gone by 5/12.
Gatsby has name recognition and also the benefit of a Thursday matinee, which could bring in extra summer crowds. I think it has longer than just the summer.
The Wiz was always a limited run to August 18th, but I wonder if this will kneecap it into closing early.
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/10/11
The Wiz was always a limited run to August 18th, but I wonder if this will kneecap it into closing early."
I doubt that The Wiz’s target audience even knows what the Tony’s are. Won’t impact it an iota. I expect great business all summer. Time will tell if they extend.
To be honest, i wouldn't be at all surprised if HOR&R and Lempicka announce thier closings shortly after this afternoon's weekly grosses are published
I don’t understand all the hate for back to the future. Yes, it’s pedestrian. But it’s a lot of fun, wonderful big musical numbers and effects. And Roger Bart and Hugh Cole’s and Casey Likes rock.
Outsiders is building a fanbase, but it's a young fanbase. Hasn't it historically been the case that musicals that appeal to youth audiences in particular do worse, because they're being consumed as mass media and not as tickets sold? Or did "Six" prove that theory wrong?
I would imagine Heart of Rock and Roll will post tonight around 6:40 after telling the cast and crew. I'm thinking May 6th. That show has been hemorrhaging money week to week.
Broadway Star Joined: 4/3/17
I didn't even like Back to the Future and I know it's not going anywhere when it's making a million a week
All four literary adaptations this spring at least make it to Labor Day. Suffs closes mid-August.
Tommy and Back to the Future will reach January and beyond.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/30/15
Theatrefanboy1 said: "the notebook- closes by September long weekend
water for elephants - closes in January
Hell’s Kitchen - doesn’t make it a year
the only one I really see having staying power is The Outsiders. It kind of is building that newsies fan base"
I don't think The Notebook was being powered by critical praise to begin with. Once some of the other musicals fall away, it could be the sentimental romantic show some audiences want.
With Hell's Kitchen, I wouldn't ignore the lack of other jukebox shows. I don't think there's the same nostalgia as there is for Carole King or MJ but this could last a while.
Newsies didn't run that long.
I think Heart of Rock and Roll likely announces closing this evening. The only caveat is that they clearly have other plans for this one: it's built for a tour and cruise ships, directly appealing to middle America (I mean the plot...do I follow my dreams of working a great factory job or follow my dreams of playing with my friends in a band?). I think those markets really are their end goal, so there's a chance they throw money into it for a few more weeks if they need to get more road producers (and other potential clients) to see it.
Lempicka could announce closing today. But it wouldn't surprise me if they delay it a bit just to save face and let their nominees at least enjoy the week without bad news.
I don't see anything else in imminent danger. The Wiz was skunked but is raking in money and is already a limited run. The Great Gatsby has name recognition to sell through at least the summer. Back to the Future was never staking its success on Tony nominations, another show where the property is a bigger sell than any awards, reviews, or stars. The Notebook might need to come up with a new advertising angle as running past the summer will be tricky, but it should be fine for a bit.
VintageSnarker said: "Newsies didn't run that long."
Newsies ran 1000 performances. Any of these shows would KILL for a Newsies-length run.
Matt Gould just confirmed to me that Lempicka is closing early May.
As far as musicals go, HoR&R and LEMPICKA are the only closing notices I expect before the Tonys. I could see LEMPICKA waiting until after Thursday's Tony Nominees Press Junket to announce, so Eden & Amber don't get bombarded with questions about the closing.
SUFFS, OUTSIDERS, and HELL'S KITCHEN all feel like equal possibilities for Best Musical, and they'll be running rigorous campaigns. The next 8 weeks will dictate the lengths of runs.
BACK TO THE FUTURE is going nowhere unless its grosses dip a lot.
ILLINOISE and THE WIZ are limited runs through August. No possible extension at the St. J for Illinoise, but The Wiz would probably like to extend through January or beyond if sales allow. (The Wiz tour resumes in early 2025)
Everything else feels destined to close in 4-8 months (between September & January), depending on how the grosses are. TOMMY, NOTEBOOK, W4E, GATSBY. Other Best Musical losers may join this list if sales don't continue to build.
EDSOSLO858 said: "Matt Gould just confirmed tome that Lempicka is closing early May."
'early May' starts tomorrow...............
Grosses from last week are out and listed HERE
New shows playing at obviously below-the-nut (in some case, very, very below) include:
Lempica ($288K...yikes)
Heart of Rock and Roll ($371K...another yikes))
Illinoise ($728K...not bad but not good either)
Suffs ($630K)
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