Jonathan Groffs chances at a Tony

After seeing Merrily I’m curious what people’s thoughts are on Jonathan Groffs chances of getting the Tony. I’m assuming he’s almost sure of being nominated (I’m also assuming that that Daniel will be nominated for Supporting as will Lindsey.  ). But what are his chances of winning or is there a dark horse coming in that I’m not seeing

I think it’s his year.

Any more word on MERRILY extending? If it indeed closes in March do you think that could hurt Groff's chances?

Was talking to Jonathan the other day. It sounds like if the sell out continues. They will extend one final time as a “must end” in June.  I hope that they do.  This production deserves all the success. It’s incredible 

An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time.

Award shows are three quarter popularity contests.

Aside from deserving it, he will get it because he is a lovely guy. He has paid his dues. Merit barely comes into it.

hearthemsing22 said: "BJR said: "An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time."

But we all acknowledge someone shouldn't just win an award based on it being "their time" or that a group of people love a performer and think that performer is owed a Tony or anything, yes? We know this?"

I'm far more surprised by the narrative around Groff being that he's overdue for a Tony and that if he wins, it would a legacy win of some kind. As a way of anointing a "Broadway star"? Sure. But overdue??

Oh, I'm sure they will. The role is def a featured role. I can't imagine the Tony committee disagreeing . 

Broadway Bob* said: "Any more word on MERRILY extending? If it indeed closes in March do you think that could hurt Groff's chances?"

This is the question. If this extends until the Tonys, then Merrily and Groff are likely the frontrunners. If it closes in March, though, all of a sudden they become longshots given the history of the Tonys (not) rewarding closed musicals.

I disagree with any sentiment that Jonathan Groff's Tony would have anything to do with feeling overdue (the same way people might think of Kelli O'Hara's "King and I" Tony, when really she should have won for Bridges). I just think it's an absolutely stunning performance and deserves to win in its own right. 

I totally agree that Jonathan Groff's performance was fantastic and as of now, it is the lead male performance (musical) to beat. The only performance that I can see coming in next season that could be a major contender is James Monroe Iglehart for A Wonderful World. Supposedly, it is on track to come in next season, but we'll see. I saw it in Chicago and it is a phenomenal performance in the vein of Audra McDonald as Lady Day or Jessie Mueller as Carole King, where it goes beyond impersonation. Seriously, when he does the big Louis smile, it melts your heart. Unfortunatley, the show is no where near as great as his performance, which could be in his favor.

binau said: "I disagree with any sentiment that Jonathan Groff's Tony would have anything to do with feeling overdue (the same way people might think of Kelli O'Hara's "King and I" Tony, when really she should have won for Bridges). I just think it's an absolutely stunning performance and deserves to win in its own right."

If anyone fit the overdue narrative it would be Brian D’Arcy James. And his performance is also terrific. If I were a voter this would be a very difficult choice.

I was at the second Off-Broadway preview and thought there and then that if it transferred, he'd be a major contender for the Tony. I hope it's his year.