Jonathan Groffs chances at a Tony

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 11/8/23 at 8:11pm

After seeing Merrily I’m curious what people’s thoughts are on Jonathan Groffs chances of getting the Tony. I’m assuming he’s almost sure of being nominated (I’m also assuming that that Daniel will be nominated for Supporting as will Lindsey.  ). But what are his chances of winning or is there a dark horse coming in that I’m not seeing

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 11/8/23 at 8:17pm

I’d say his chances are excellent. Assuming Eddie Redmayne will be submitted in leading along with Brian d’Arcy James and then possible other nominees from Outsiders, Water for Elephants etc. but Groff is loved by everyone and it does seem like this could be his year. And deservedly so. 

Updated On: 11/8/23 at 08:17 PM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 11/8/23 at 9:02pm

I think it’s his year.

[RUkiddingme]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 12:02am

I'm not sure which will get him more votes -

a - his incredible performance

b- his popularity with his peers

c - the fact that he's turned a historic flop into a sure fire hit

He should win!

[Broadway Bob*]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 8:30am

Any more word on MERRILY extending? If it indeed closes in March do you think that could hurt Groff's chances?

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 8:32am

Groff has had such a successful career! I surely hope that this is his year! It brings me so much joy to see a fellow Central Pennsylvanian making it big! 

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 8:44am

Was talking to Jonathan the other day. It sounds like if the sell out continues. They will extend one final time as a “must end” in June.  I hope that they do.  This production deserves all the success. It’s incredible 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 9:36am

I'm sure he'll be nominated, deservedly so... but I think it's too early to predict winners. 

Truth be told, I'm more invested in Radcliffe finally getting his first nomination! (As he should have for Equus, Cripple and H2S!)

[BJR]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 9:47am

An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time.

[Ledaero]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 10:10am

I agree, excellent odds for him to win. I think it'll be a race between d'Arcy James and Groff and it's a toss up. Both beloved by the industry giving career-best performances and a win for either would be legacy wins.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 10:18am

Award shows are three quarter popularity contests.

Aside from deserving it, he will get it because he is a lovely guy. He has paid his dues. Merit barely comes into it.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 10:55am

BJR said: "An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time."

But we all acknowledge someone shouldn't just win an award based on it being "their time" or that a group of people love a performer and think that performer is owed a Tony or anything, yes? We know this?

[lopside]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 10:59am

hearthemsing22 said: "BJR said: "An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time."

But we all acknowledge someone shouldn't just win an award based on it being "their time" or that a group of people love a performer and think that performer is owed a Tony or anything, yes? We know this?"

I'm far more surprised by the narrative around Groff being that he's overdue for a Tony and that if he wins, it would a legacy win of some kind. As a way of anointing a "Broadway star"? Sure. But overdue??

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 11:10am

dramamama611 said: "I'm sure he'll be nominated, deservedly so... but I think it's too early to predict winners.

Truth be told, I'm more invested in Radcliffe finally getting his first nomination! (As he should have for Equus, Cripple and H2S!)"

 

I wonder if they will petition for Radcliffe to be considered as featured (even though he is top billed). That way the two male leads won't have to compete with each other.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 11:36am

Oh, I'm sure they will. The role is def a featured role. I can't imagine the Tony committee disagreeing . 

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 11:45am

hearthemsing22 said: "BJR said: "An extension is a big factor here. If it's closed, surely a nom and maybe a win. If it's still running at Tony time, I'd make him the current favorite.

Huge hit, tremendous reviews, a performance many have said is revelatory in the part, and to paraphrase, it's his time."

But we all acknowledge someone shouldn't just win an award based on it being "their time" or that a group of people love a performer and think that performer is owed a Tony or anything, yes? We know this?"

We know this, but there have certainly been wins in the past that would seem like they happened just because people felt it was "their time" and the role they won for was "good enough" for them to win the Tony.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 12:07pm

Broadway Bob* said: "Any more word on MERRILY extending? If it indeed closes in March do you think that could hurt Groff's chances?"

This is the question. If this extends until the Tonys, then Merrily and Groff are likely the frontrunners. If it closes in March, though, all of a sudden they become longshots given the history of the Tonys (not) rewarding closed musicals.

[SondheimTesori]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 1:53pm

Does anyone think Radcliffe could win Featured? I am trying to think of who else would be competitive in that category this year. Also I'm assuming Mendez will be in Lead?

[binau]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 2:10pm

I disagree with any sentiment that Jonathan Groff's Tony would have anything to do with feeling overdue (the same way people might think of Kelli O'Hara's "King and I" Tony, when really she should have won for Bridges). I just think it's an absolutely stunning performance and deserves to win in its own right. 

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 3:13pm

There are so so many other shows to open before the end of the season. This is way too preamture to predict. 

[MidWestTheater]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 5:56pm

I totally agree that Jonathan Groff's performance was fantastic and as of now, it is the lead male performance (musical) to beat. The only performance that I can see coming in next season that could be a major contender is James Monroe Iglehart for A Wonderful World. Supposedly, it is on track to come in next season, but we'll see. I saw it in Chicago and it is a phenomenal performance in the vein of Audra McDonald as Lady Day or Jessie Mueller as Carole King, where it goes beyond impersonation. Seriously, when he does the big Louis smile, it melts your heart. Unfortunatley, the show is no where near as great as his performance, which could be in his favor.

[kingfan011]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 6:38pm

I'm more curious if Radcliffe will finally get nominated

[smidge]

Posted: 11/9/23 at 11:38pm

binau said: "I disagree with any sentiment that Jonathan Groff's Tony would have anything to do with feeling overdue (the same way people might think of Kelli O'Hara's "King and I" Tony, when really she should have won for Bridges). I just think it's an absolutely stunning performance and deserves to win in its own right."

If anyone fit the overdue narrative it would be Brian D’Arcy James. And his performance is also terrific. If I were a voter this would be a very difficult choice.

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 11/10/23 at 12:58am

smidge said: "binau said: "I disagree with any sentiment that Jonathan Groff's Tony would have anything to do with feeling overdue (the same way people might think of Kelli O'Hara's "King and I" Tony, when really she should have won for Bridges). I just think it's an absolutely stunning performance and deserves to win in its own right."

If anyone fit the overdue narrative it would be Brian D’Arcy James. And his performance is also terrific. If I were a voter this would be a very difficult choice."

Well, as far as overdue is concerned, Chip Zien trumps them all.

Updated On: 11/10/23 at 12:58 AM

[Mark_E]

Posted: 11/10/23 at 8:22am

I was at the second Off-Broadway preview and thought there and then that if it transferred, he'd be a major contender for the Tony. I hope it's his year.