Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread- Page 16

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 4/17/18 at 11:19pm

Having seen and loved both Lenk and Ambrose, I wouldn't want to decide between them.  it's Exhibit A for how ridiculous comparing performances of very different roles can be.   Both are exquisite actors who play their roles winningly and sing them beautifully. 
Both broke my heart. 

Of course Eliza is a much larger and more commanding role than Dina, which might give Ambrose an edge.  But maybe not.  Maybe Lenk making such a strong impression in a less starry role will work in her favor. 

There seems to be universal good will for Lenk, which is a beautiful thing, but, among some in the community a resentment (lingering?  hopefully not)  that Ambrose was cast as Eliza, which has been a very ugly thing to watch. 

I suspect Ambrose's reviews to be glowing and that this will become a very close race between them.
I'd be fine with either winning.  

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 1:12am

Joshua Henry seems pretty set to win, no?

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 1:25am

The Distinctive Baritone said: "Joshua Henry seems pretty set to win, no?"

Not if Harry Hadden-Paton has anything to say about it.

[The Josh]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 1:35am

BroadwayConcierge said: "The Distinctive Baritone said: "Joshua Henry seems pretty set to win, no?"

Not if Harry Hadden-Paton has anything to say about it."

I wouldn't count out Ethan Slater either!

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 2:02am

I think Butz takes Featured Actor, easily.

I know he has ''competition'' for the guy from Bands Visit and the actor playing Damien in Mean Girls, but I believe he will be the winner.

[CindersGolightly]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 6:12am

I’ve been thinking about "Mean Girls" and the Tony Nominations a lot lately.

I feel like Taylor Louderman (Regina), Grey Henson (Damian), Barrett Wilbert Weed (Janis), and one last featured role, either Kate Rockwell (Karen), or Kerry Butler (Mrs. Heron/Mrs. Norbury/Mrs. George) are the actors that’ll be nominated. I know about vote splitting, and it is in the back of my mind, but in my head, I’ve sorta worked it out.

I don’t think Barrett is in serious trouble with splitting a vote. Realistically, the most vote splitting will be between members of the Plastics. That’s why I’m not totally sold on Kate Rockwell securing a nomination. I know for a fact that some voters will prefer Ashley Park’s more subtle comedic performance, that actually contains a lot of nuance and heart, as opposed to Kate’s consistently funny, scene stealing comedic performance.

I think, out of every character in the show, Janis has the most to do. She’s hilariously written, she has the best numbers in the show, and honestly, Barrett Wilbert Weed is maybe one of the strongest vocalists Broadway has had in a very, very long time. I would be sorta shocked if she wasn’t nominated. I could even see her winning the Tony. Lindsay Mendez seems to be the front runner, but there's so much more to play with Janis. That being said, I would be beyond thrilled to see Mendez walk home with the Tony.

I could easily see the nominators wanting to give Kerry Butler her (very overdue) second Tony nomination. After all, she is giving THREE performances, and she disappears into each of them. She’s completely unrecognizable as each of the ladies she plays, and I do think she deserves the second and final Tony nomination. As much as I love both Ashley Park and Kate Rockwell, I just don’t feel like they hold up compared to Kerry Butler and Barrett Wilbert Weed. Of course, all of these choices could split the vote so much that there is only one actress from "Mean Girls" up for featured. It could even make it so none of them are recognized - which is the unfortunate part about every actress in this show being such a knockout. Sort of reminds me of "Great Comet" and how not one of their featured actresses deserved to be shut out.

Grey Henson is a lock. There is no planet on earth in which he won’t be nominated.

Taylor Louderman SHOULD be a lock, but similar to Karen and Gretchen, I fear the votes splitting Regina and Cady will make sure neither of them are nominated. The honest truth is that Cady is well written, but she’s the ingenue of the show. Erika Henningsen, who is phenomenal in the part, has to be the straight man. There isn’t really anything flashy about Cady’s role. I don’t think she’ll be nominated, but even so, I know it is a possibility that the votes split between Taylor and Erika. I’m definitely on #TeamTaylor, and hope she’ll be nominated. But I won’t be shocked if nobody is representing "Mean Girls" in the lead actress category.

[Playbill_Trash]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 6:34am

Lindsay is a goddess said: "GeorgeandDot said: "I agree. Carousel isn't anywhere near being in the league with Once on this Island and My Fair Lady."

I thought this early on, and although reviews for Carousel haven’t exactly been glowing, I think it got enough positive reviews to justify a nomination."

If Carousel isn't nominated for Best Revival this year then the Tony committee is obligated to retroactively retract the Best Revival nomination for Grease in 2008. 

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 6:41am

The Distinctive Baritone said: "Joshua Henry seems pretty set to win, no?"

God I hope not. Harry Hadden-Paton is giving a much better performance.

[pupscotch]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 8:03am

The Distinctive Baritone said: "Joshua Henry seems pretty set to win, no?"

I wouldn’t mind if he won, but I too am desperately hoping for Hadden-Paton. He was absolutely terrific as Higgins. 

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 9:21am

Tony Shalhoub gave my favorite lead actor performance, even if his singing is minimal.

[benwilsonn.xo]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 3:52pm

I think Best Actress in a Musical will be Lauren Ambrose, Hailey Kilgore, Taylor Louderman, Katrina Lark and Jessie Meuller and Best Featured Actor in a Musical will be Alex Newell, Norbert Leo Butz, Gavin Lee, Grey Henson, and one of the men from The Band’s Visit. I’m personally rooting for Alex Newell from Once On This Island!

Updated On: 4/18/18 at 03:52 PM

[Elegance101]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 4:00pm

CindersGolightly said: "I’ve been thinking about "Mean Girls" and the Tony Nominations a lot lately.

I feellike Taylor Louderman (Regina), Grey Henson (Damian), Barrett Wilbert Weed (Janis), and one last featured role, either Kate Rockwell (Karen), or Kerry Butler (Mrs. Heron/Mrs. Norbury/Mrs. George) are the actors that’ll be nominated. I know about vote splitting, and it is in the back of my mind, but in my head, I’ve sorta worked it out.

I don’t think Barrett is in serious trouble with splitting a vote. Realistically, the most vote splitting will be between members of the Plastics. That’s why I’m not totally sold on Kate Rockwell securing a nomination. I know for a fact that some voters will prefer Ashley Park’s more subtle comedic performance, that actually contains a lot of nuance and heart, as opposed to Kate’s consistently funny, scene stealing comedic performance.

I think, out of every character in the show, Janis has the most to do. She’s hilariously written, she has the best numbers in the show, and honestly, Barrett Wilbert Weed is maybe one of the strongest vocalists Broadway has had in a very, very long time. I would be sorta shocked if she wasn’t nominated. I could even see her winning the Tony. Lindsay Mendez seems to be the front runner, but there's so much more to play with Janis. That being said, I would be beyond thrilled to see Mendez walk home with the Tony.

I could easily see the nominators wanting to give Kerry Butler her (very overdue) second Tony nomination. After all, she is giving THREE performances, and she disappears into each of them. She’s completely unrecognizable as each of the ladies she plays, and I do think she deserves the second and final Tony nomination. As much as I love both Ashley Park and Kate Rockwell, I just don’t feel like they hold up compared to Kerry Butler and Barrett Wilbert Weed. Of course, all of these choices could split the vote so much that there is only one actress from "Mean Girls" up for featured. It could even make it so none of them are recognized - which is the unfortunate part about every actress in this show being such a knockout. Sort of reminds me of "Great Comet" and how not one of their featured actresses deserved to be shut out.

Grey Henson is a lock. There is no planet on earth in which he won’t be nominated.

Taylor Louderman SHOULD be a lock, but similar to Karen and Gretchen, I fear the votes splitting Regina and Cady will make sure neither of them are nominated. The honest truth is that Cady is well written, but she’s the ingenue of the show. Erika Henningsen, who is phenomenal in the part, has to be the straight man. There isn’t really anything flashy about Cady’s role. I don’t think she’ll be nominated, but even so, I know it is a possibility that the votes split between Taylor and Erika. I’m definitely on #TeamTaylor, and hope she’ll be nominated. But I won’t be shocked if nobody is representing "Mean Girls" in the lead actress category."

I agree that Janis is the heart of the show in a lot of ways. The audience is always on Janis' side and feels for her, even more than Cady, honestly.

Kerry Butler would be nominated only because of her name. You said it: she "disappears." I know what you meant by that, but for me, she faded in the background in comparison to the other Featured Actresses.

Also there is zero need to worry about splitting the vote. Erika is not getting a nomination and she's not competition for Taylor. However, Taylor may have to be worried about leads from other shows (like maybe LaChanze could sneak in there, considering how loved she is). But I think vote splitting is more something to worry about between Rockwell and Park (and Weed, possibly) than between Louderman and Henningsen).

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 4:21pm

Tony Shalhoub should win Best Actor in a Musical.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 5:36pm

Louderman will get the nom, for that I'm sure.

I'm torn, but I believe Rockwell will also get a nom.

Aside from Salonga and Mendez, there's not really contenders.

[Lindsay is a goddess]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 9:33pm

I’m keeping an eye on Ariana Debose. She just got the Distinguished Performance nomination, and the category seems open enough for a last-minute contender to break through, especially if reviews go the way I think they will for her.

If I had to say right this minute, I think I’d go with Mendez, Louderman, Weed, Salonga, and Debose.

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 9:46pm

While it sounds like most people are suspecting Louderman will be put in the leading actress category, I hope the producers of the show will successfully petition for her to be in supporting. Though it’s a showy role, the character does not have more stage time then Barrett Wilbur Weed, and in fact I think you could argue the sole lead in the musical is Cady. Otherwise it’s very much an ensemble show.

At any rate, if Louderman somehow does manage to be nominated in supporting- I think she will win. It would likely be the only win for the

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/18/18 at 11:21pm

MadsonMelo said: "Louderman will get the nom, for that I'm sure.
I'm torn, but I believe Rockwell will also get a nom.
Aside from Salonga and Mendez, there's not really contenders."

I think Kenita R. Miller is definitely a contender. Over Lea Salonga, to be honest. Not that Salonga wasn’t great (and her “Human Heart” is perfect) but the role is fairly vanilla compared to some of the other women. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing Merle Dandridge in this conversation, even though she’s not in the show anymore. I thought she was phenomenal.

I also think there’s a chance that Renée Fleming or Diana Rigg could sneak in on name. (Not that they’re not giving great performances.)

I wish we knew how they will be considering the Mean Girls actresses!

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 12:02am

I dont actually buy the Miller situation, Feels like this board wishful thinking. She doesnt have the kind of acting or songs that usually bodes well with the Tonys.

No one talked about Fleming and she doesnt do much in Carousel either, a production too polarized.

Rigg has a shot, ok, but non singing roles Getting a nomination? Its hard.

Also, even with Mendez, Salonga, Weed and Rockwell, theres still a spot left that can go to Miller or Rigg.

If Louderman goes featured, then shes the front runner.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 12:18am

MadsonMelo said: "I dont actually buy the Miller situation, Feels like this board wishful thinking. She doesnt have the kind of acting or songs that usually bodes well with the Tonys.”

Between One Small Girl, Ti Moune, and A Part of Us, she has more to sing than Erzulie. And more directly emotional material, whereas Human Heart is gorgeous, but just a commentary on the action. (Until its reprise in Forever Yours at the end, to be fair, though I still think it’s less of an emotionally involved performance than  all of Mama Euralie’s role.) 

If Taylor Louderman is considered featured, I think I’d consider her tied as a front runner with Mendez.

[Soaring29]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 3:47am

Is Ambrose the favorite right now?

[benwilsonn.xo]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 5:22am

I think Best Featured Actress in a Musical is the hardest one to call! I think Mendez, Salonga and Rockwell will be nominated and then there’s room for two more. I predict Weed, Rigg, Miller and maybe Ariana DeBose for the Donna Summer Musical will fight it out for the last two spots!

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 7:07am

Soaring29, no. Lenk is still the favorite.

[Lindsay is a goddess]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 9:37am

What are people's thoughts on the Featured Actor in a Musical race?

I think Butz, Newell, and Stachel are locks, but I feel like the last two slots could go to any of four contenders; Gavin Lee, Grey Henson, John Cariani, or Jelani Alladin. Lee seems to be a favorite if general attitudes about SpongeBob don't get in his way, and Henson has received rave reviews for Mean Girls. Meanwhile, Alladin received some special callouts in reviews, and he just got nominated for the Drama League's Distinguished Performance Award over Caissie Levy.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 10:39am

Lindsay is a goddess said: "What are people's thoughts on the Featured Actor in a Musical race?

I think Butz, Newell, and Stachel are locks, but I feel like the last two slots could go to any of four contenders; Gavin Lee, Grey Henson, John Cariani, or Jelani Alladin. Lee seems to be a favorite if general attitudes about SpongeBob don't get in his way, and Henson has received rave reviews for Mean Girls. Meanwhile, Alladin received some special callouts in reviews, and he just got nominated for the Drama League's Distinguished Performance Award over Caissie Levy."

Has Etai Benson not been part of the conversation? I think he should be! John Cariani was out when I saw Band's Visit, and while I was initially really bummed, after the show I was scratching my head at how such a small role was getting such buzz. (Is he really that exceptional in it? Is it worth seeing again for him?) I also think Phillip Boykin should be in the conversation. In my own dream world he gets the nomination over Newell, though I know that's not happening in reality. I think it'll ultimately be Butz, Stachel, Newell, Lee, and Henson. 

 

[bwayrose7]

Posted: 4/19/18 at 10:50am

JudyDenmark said: "Lindsay is a goddess said: "What are people's thoughts on the Featured Actor in a Musical race?

I think Butz, Newell, and Stachel are locks, but I feel like the last two slots could go to any of four contenders; Gavin Lee, Grey Henson, John Cariani, or Jelani Alladin. Lee seems to be a favorite if general attitudes about SpongeBob don't get in his way, and Henson has received rave reviews for Mean Girls. Meanwhile, Alladin received some special callouts in reviews, and he just got nominated for the Drama League's Distinguished Performance Award over Caissie Levy."

Has Etai Benson not been part of the conversation? I think he should be! John Cariani was out when I saw Band's Visit, and while I was initially really bummed, after the show I was scratching my head at how such a small role was getting such buzz. (Is he really that exceptional in it? Is itworth seeing again for him?)I also think Phillip Boykin should be in the conversation. In my own dream world he gets the nomination over Newell, though I know that's not happening in reality.I think it'll ultimately be Butz, Stachel, Newell, Lee, and Henson.

I also found Cariani's role (I did see him perform in it) a bit underwhelming. Benson and Stachel were definitely the standouts for me in the supporting roles, although I think Benson is much likelier to get overlooked in this crowded category.