That's possible, but it never entirely made sense to me. They announced Onaodowan's two-month run, from early July to early September, way back in February. It felt like a band-aid, a hope that Hamilton fans would provide a temporary boost while they lined up someone who could get the show through the fall.
But they were going to face other issues, with cast departures upcoming when contracts were up. When I saw the show in April, Josh Groban mentioned those upcoming departures - not just his own, and not by name. Those were going to create some major losses, but also opportunities for stunt casting.
Pierre spends a lot of time watching, but the actor who plays the role still has to learn two instruments, one of which is an accordian, and have the voice and acting chops for the part. The producers had set up a situation where audiences expected a name. That was the problem with hiring Groban in the first place, even though I thought he was wonderful in the role.
I know Kagan seems to have problems with planning things out, but why would he wait until the last minute to announce the next Pierre, or some name to draw the non-fans? The only rationale I can think of is that they didn't want to announce a big name for September and then lose a bunch of July and August sales because people were waiting. If that was the case, they had some reasonably big name for Pierre, and that actor bailed when the whole Onaodowan thing happened. (If so, that actor has a lot of accordian training that's gone to waste.)
But my real guess is that they never had anyone. The producers were counting on the show being a breakout hit, a Tony winner for Best Musical, even a must-see cultural phenomenon, and then it wouldn't matter who played Pierre. But that didn't happen, and there was a lot of mad scrambling to prop up the show (Brittain Ashford's "vacation" so a minor pop star could take her place, the desperate Mandy Patinkin ploy that ended badly).
I suppose Great Comet will be one of those shows that never had a money-losing week on Broadway, filled the seats, won a lot of praise, but never came close to recouping. People will play what-might-have-been for years, although I'm honestly not sure if anything Kagan could have done would have done anything more than keep the show running until January. Could the show have opened on Broadway without Groban bringing in his own audience? He certainly could have recognized the the show was an unlikely Tony winner, pretty much from the moment Dear Evan Hansen opened. Kagan needed a Plan B, and it either didn't exist or was such a shaky scheme that it easily exploded without anyone learning the name of the actor who pulled out.
