thoughts:
Musical: No real surprises here, though its a shame Here Lies Love, flawed as it was, didnt make the cut. Days of Wine Roses not making the cut surprised me based on the intense love for this show, but I thought it was dull as hell so no love lost here. All the love for Hells Kitchen is understandable, its a fun night with insane performances, but the notion that this book was nominated for anything is just... hard to stomach. Similarly, the idea that W4E was nominated for Score.... I find myself pulling for The Outsiders here, but I'm nervous the enthusiasm for Hells Kitchen will only build.
Play: Obviously will be Stereophonics, but both Prayer for French Republic and JaJa were such worthy, interesting efforts from MTC, topped off with Mary Jane, what a year for MTC. Based on what I've heard, it feels somewhat political that Paula Vogel's pedestrian play beat out the toast of London (Patriots)--I'm still looking forward to seeing both.
Musical Revival: Obviously will be Merrily, but looks like the nominators overall didnt detest Cabaret as much as some of the critics did. I feel bad for Spamalot, because it was such a crowd-pleasing fun time, with sincere effort made to modernize/update the humor and take it in new directions, whereas Tommy was just a rerun. Thrilled for the Gutenberg team.
Play Revival: Remind me, three nominees means they went out of their way to say "We really didnt think much of Uncle Vanya or Doubt" right? Given the reviews, seems more of a pointed snub of Doubt, but since Vanya is still running, I guess its a pointed snub of both. I know Appropriate is likely to take it, but i cant think of a better epitome of REVIVAL than the magic that was spun re Purlie.
Actor Play: I thought Harper was going to be eligible as featured, so this threw me. I think Carrell is such a standup guy who can do no wrong, so Im bummed hes been overlooked like this but I havent seen the show so... Patriots being left out makes me think Stuhlbarg doesnt have a shot, but Will Keen ALSO being left out thinks this is might be the only place for voters to push back against all the Patriots snubbery.
Actress Play: Again, I havent seen Vanya so maybe I misread the WOM, but I thought Anika Noni Rose was likely to get nominated here. They really seem mad at Vanya huh. Glad Betsy Aidem got in, and no idea whether this will be a nod to Lange's storied career, or a passing of the theater torch to Paulson, or a warm welcome to McAdams. (Probably Paulson's).
Supporting Actor Play: Definitely expected Will Brill to get in here, and thought Gelb might be recognized too, but they're clearly going all in on Stereo here. Pecinka was fine but I would have much preferred to see some Purlie love here (Billy Eugene Jones or even Jay O Sanders), and I was shocked that Will Keen didnt make it (less shocked about Imperioli, but it does suggest some coolness re Enemy compared to other shows). I can see the Stereo boys cancelling each other out though, leaving a path for Corey Stoll or Jim Parsons here.
Supporting Actress Play: If Keen was The Snub for the gentlemen, Francis Benhamou is The Snub for the ladies. I was genuinely shocked she didnt make it (she outright won a bunch of awards for this role last year), and her firebrand monologue explosion is what Tony love is usually made of. I cant help but wonder if the ongoing Gaza/hostages nightmare played a role here- her character was overtly political? I cant quite understand it. Especially because Juliana Canfield seems to have been swept up in Stereo-fever, but didnt really blow me away, and Quincy Tyler Bernstine was similarly fine but not earthshattering. Kinda nuts that Zoe Kazan somehow became the only non-nominee of that cast- i thought she was great. And NO women from Jaja?? I suspect this will go to Pidgeon but theres alot of Kara Young love bottled up over these three years, and if they want to recognize Purlie...
Actor Musical: Of course I would have loved to have seen Chip Zien finally recognized for a storied career, but the writing in Harmony was so bad, it was hard to take him seriously. The bigger surprise here: Harewood getting in and Ali Bourghzi not-- I thought both roles felt like supporting roles, not leading roles, but Ali is playing Tommy in a show called Tommy, so I guess thats more of a problem there. And Harewood was truly moving.
Actress Musical: The Taub snub is the most telltale sign that they dont love Suffs all that much. Very happy that Eden made it here- i thought she was great, and the negative reaction to Lempicka has been over the top. Feels like this will go to Moon.
Supporting Actor Musical: Francis Benhamou shocked me the most, but Paul Alexander Nolan probably seems the most egregious oversight. Lotta griping about Roger Bart--i havent seen BTTF but it strikes me as pretty normal for them to nominate the showiest role out of that show---but i'm more unimpressed with Sky Dakota Lynch and Brendan Victor Dixon here. Im pulling for Skybell based on his Tevye magnificence, but I also thought Radcliffe was the highlight of Merrily, and am happy he will likely take it.
Supporting Actress Musical: Nikki James is doing great work in Suffs, but its wild that shes the only nominee from this overstacked cast of talent. Collela missing out seems odd. The Hells Kitchen freight train makes me wonder if Kecia Lewis really has a shot here.