Tony Awards Predictions (All Categories)- Page 2

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/26/25 at 11:26am

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Fina Strazza was amazing, but I think Amalia Yoo has the type of role that gets nominated. Yoo shares the epic final moment with Sadie Sink (and Yoo's gorgeous monologue leads right into their dance) so you leave the show thinking about Sink and Yoo and how they nailed the ending. I'd be happy with all three women earning a spot, but I'd say Yoo has better odds just because of how her role is written with more singular moments.

Mainly, I'm really hoping for ties in Lead Actress in a Musical and Featured Actress in a Play so we get an extra nominee or two. Those categories are just packed with stellar, career-defining work. It's easy to find 6-7 nominees that more than deserve their place."

I agree with all of this, and would love to see both Strazza and Yoo get in! I mean, you could fill that whole category with just that cast and I'd say they all deserve it - I can't remember the last time I loved a play so much.

And I hope there are ties in more than just those two stacked categories, especially in Best Musical - there's just too much good work this year to see it go unrecognized. I would personally be disappointed to see any of Boop! / Buena Vista Social Club / Dead Outlaw / Death Becomes Her / Maybe Happy Ending / Operation Mincemeat / Real Women Have Curves left out of that, even though I'm prepared for that on Thursday haha. 

[musicthatmakesmedance]

Posted: 4/26/25 at 11:37am

Does anyone think there’s a chance that Mincemeat is left out of the Best Musical category? I certainly enjoyed it but I don’t know that it’s the lock many people are thinking it is…?

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/26/25 at 11:45am

musicthatmakesmedance said: "Does anyone think there’s a chance thatMincemeatis left out of the Best Musical category? I certainly enjoyed it but I don’t know that it’s the lock many people are thinking it is…?"

I think it's possible but not likely to miss. I honestly think Maybe Happy Ending is the only 100% complete lock in that category.

[cap21alum0]

Posted: 4/26/25 at 2:21pm

revival predictions are spot on

[theatergoer3]

Posted: 4/27/25 at 8:28am

As of Sunday (pre-final committee meeting hopefully) 

Winner prediction in bold

 

Best Musical -

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Buena Vista Social Club  

RU: Real Women Have Curves

 

Best Play

Oh, Mary !

English 

Purpose

John Proctor is the Villain

The Hills of California

RU: Cult of Love 

 

Best Revival of a Musical

Sunset Blvd. 

Gypsy 

Pirates!

Floyd Collins

RU: Once Upon a Mattress 

 

Best Revival of a Play

Eureka Day

Yellow Face

Glengarry Glenn Ross

Othello ? 

RU: R&J 

 

Best Actress in a Musical

Audra McDonald

Nicole Scherzinger 

Megan Hilty

Jasmine Amy Rogers

Helen J Shen 

RUs: Jennifer Simard, Robyn Hurder, Idina Menzel

 

Best Actor in a Musical

Tom Francis 

Darren Criss

Jeremy Jordan 

Jonathan Groff

Andrew Durand

RUs: James Monroe Igleheart, David Hyde Pierce

 

Best Actress in a Play

Sarah Snook

Laura Donnelly

Mia Farrow

Sadie Sink 

LaTanya Richardson Jackson

 

Best Actor in a Play

Cole Escola

George Clooney 

Daniel Dae Kim 

Jake Gyllenhaal

Jim Parsons 

RU: Denzel Washington

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Joy Woods

Natalie Venetia Belcon 

Grace Hodgett Young 

Jordan Tyson or Lesli Margherita 

Zoe Roberts 

RUs: Bernadette Peters, Julia Knitel, Justina Machado, Caroline Bowman, Jinkx Monsoon

 

Best Featured Actor in A Musical

Jak Malone

David Thaxton

Danny Burstein 

Christopher Sieber

Thom Sesma

RUs: Ramin Karimloo, Brooks Ashmanskas, Taylor Trensch, Jeb Brown, Jason Gotay

 

Best Featured Actress (Play) 

Kara Young 

Jessica Hecht

Bianca Leigh

Marjan Neshat

Fina Strazza/Amalia Yoo

RUs: Ophelia Lovibond, Helena Wilson, Leanne Best, Tala Ashe, Alana Arenas

 

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Bill Burr

Conrad Ricamora 

Kieran Culkin 

Bob Odenkirk

Bill Irwin

RU: James Scully, Francis Jue, Glenn Davis

 

Best Director of A Musical

Jamie Lloyd

George C. Wolf 

Michael Arden 

David Cromer.

Robert Hastie

RU: Christopher Gattelli

 


Best Director of A Play

Sam Pinkleton

Stephen Daldry and Justin Martin 

Danya Taymor

Sam Mendes

Phylicia Rashad

RU: Patrick Marber, David Cromer

 

Best Score

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Boop

RU: Real Women Have Curves 

 

Best Book 

Maybe Happy Ending

Dead Outlaw

Operation Mincemeat

Death Becomes Her

Boop!

RU: Real Women Have Curves 

 

Best Choreography 

Sunset Blvd. 

Pirates! 

Gypsy 

Buena Vista Social Club

Smash

RUs: Death Becomes Her

Updated On: 4/27/25 at 08:28 AM

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/28/25 at 12:24am

The Tony awards nominations will always be full of surprises and sometimes have WTF moments so I think I’ll just go out on a limb and sprinkle some left of field choices and unpopular omissions.  

 

Best Musical

Maybe Happy Ending

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Operation Mincemeat

Real Women Have Curves 

 

Best Play

Purpose

English

John Proctor is the Villain

Oh Mary!

The Hills of California

 

Revival of a Musical

Gypsy

Pirates! The Penzance Musical

Sunset Blvd.

Floyd Collins

 

Revival of a Play

Eureka Day

Glengarry Glen Ross

Our Town

Yellow Face

 

Lead Actor in a Musical

Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

David Cumming, Operation Mincemeat 

Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.

Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

 

Lead Actress in a Musical

Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.

Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her

Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

Tatianna Cordoba, Real Women Have Curves

Natasha Hodgson, Operation Mincemeat 

 

Featured Actor in a Musical

Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

David Thaxton, Sunset Blvd.

Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw

Brooks Ashmanskas, Smash

 

Featured Actress in a Musical

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves

Clair Marie-Hall, Operation Mincemeat 

Zoe Roberts, Operation Mincemeat 

Jinkx Monsoon, Pirates! The Penzance Musical

 

Lead Actor in a Play

Cole Escola, Oh Mary!

Jake Gyllenhaal, Othello

George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck

Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet

Jon Michael Hill, Purpose

 

Lead Actress in a Play

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Mia Farrow, The Roommate

LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose

Sadie Sink, John Proctor is the Villain

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California

 

Featured Actor in a Play

Conrad Ricamora, Oh Mary!

Bill Burr, Glengarry Glen Ross

Bill Irwin, Eureka Day

Francis Jue, Yellow Face

Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross

 

Featured Actress in a Play

Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Bianca Leigh, Oh Mary!

Amalia Yoo, John Proctor is the Villain

Alana Arenas, Purpose

Kara Young, Purpose

 

Original Score

Dead Outlaw

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

Death Becomes Her

Real Women Have Curves

 

Book of a Musical

Operation Mincemeat

Maybe Happy Ending

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Real Women Have Curves

 

Direction of a Musical

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

David Cromer, Dead Outlaw

George C. Wolfe, Gypsy

Michale Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

Robert Hastie, Operation Mincemeat

 

Direction of a Play

Sam Pinkleton, Oh Mary!

Knud Adams, English

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Phylicia Rashad, Purpose

Steven Daldry and Justin Martin, Stranger Things

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/28/25 at 5:33pm

Is anyone finding it surprising that, despite there being a sizable number of really well-reviewed musicals and revivals this season -- and how long has it been since we have had so many well reviewed musicals that will not be nominated for best musical -- there is only one of them that is not regularly at TKTS. 

That is Just in Time, which is probably due to Jonathan Groff's draw; and it is probably not clear at this point whether that will continue as long as Groff is in the show or whether it will die down once his mega-fans have seen the show?  

In any event, this season does not appear to have opened a single musical that will 'obviously' have real Broadway legs, i.e., run a minimum of three years with profitable business, and return its investment and make at least a decent return on its investment. Not a 'smash' among them, no pun intended.

I am sure that I am coming across as a doomsayer, but I just find it really disappointing.

 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/28/25 at 6:02pm

Jarethan said: "Is anyone finding it surprising that, despite there being a sizable number of really well-reviewed musicals and revivals this season -- and how long has it been since we have had so manywell reviewed musicals that will not be nominated for best musical -- there is only one of them that isnot regularly at TKTS.

That is Just in Time, which is probably due to Jonathan Groff's draw;and it is probably not clear at this point whether that will continue as long as Groff is in the show or whether it will die down once his mega-fans have seen the show?

In any event, this season does not appear to have opened a single musical that will 'obviously' have real Broadway legs, i.e., run a minimum of three years with profitable business, and return its investment and make at least a decent return on its investment.Not a 'smash' among them, no pun intended.

I am sure that I am coming across as a doomsayer, but I just find it really disappointing.

"

I feel like it sort of makes sense. Last year was full of big IP shows - Back to the Future, The Great Gatsby, The Notebook, Hell's Kitchen (Alicia Keys), The Outsiders. Aside from HK and The Outsiders, none were big critical successes but all except The Notebook have/had pretty solid runs.

This year is a lot more niche which will lead to better critical notices but less interest from the general public. So I feel like it all tracks. 

[bear88]

Posted: 4/28/25 at 9:29pm

I think Mr. Wormwood is correct. On the Friday night of my recent visit, we were having dinner, and in walked a huge group of high schoolers, parents and teachers. What were they seeing afterwards? The Great Gatsby, of course. They read it in school, I’m sure.

Another group at our hotel, definitely a musical theater contingent, was seeing Cabaret.

This year’s new musicals, even the ones based on comparatively obscure films, all feel like they’re climbing a hill. And then they are competing with Denzel Washington and George Clooney, among other familiar names.

Operation Mincemeat may have won the Olivier, but it’s a musical with no names or a familiar story to most people. Maybe Happy Ending started from nothing. Same with Dead Outlaw. Or Boop! Real Women Have Curves has hurdles as well even if people remember the movie. I could go down the list. I saw 6 shows the week I was here and it would have been easy to add 3 or 4 more.

I am not convinced that Maybe Happy Ending can’t have a decent run if it wins Best Musical but it may, like a lot of Best Musical winners during the last decade (assuming it wins) not be the type of show to play for years.

Last year’s musicals had a lot of familiar IP. This year’s do not. And the depth of this season, with something for everyone, may work against one show managing to break out. Or maybe it’s just the sort of year when nothing captures the broader public’s imagination. It’s a tough business.

[binau]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 2:25am

I guess because I myself have niche theatre interests I personally don't mind that we don't have another 'mega hit'. I don't want the real estate clogged up for years, and I tend to gravitate towards the smaller shows anyway. 

As long as the box office is healthy enough to convInce investors to keep losing their money, I'm happy - and I think this season has given plenty reason for investors to part their money in future. This season has proven that a 'little artistic show' (Maybe Happy Ending) can build an audience from nothing, that you can revive a legendary show for the 35th time (Gypsy) and still get people in the door, that a scrappy little British show with no names can generate some interest (Operation Mincemeat), that there is such thing as a real theatre star who can sell tickets even today (Just In Time), that Sondheim can sell (Old Friends), that the law of a-list celebrities selling tickets still stands (Othello & Clooney play), that you can create an event and have a decent run with someone who isn't really a 'star' but becomes a star in the role (Nicole S). It may not be enough for any of these shows to actually turn a profit, but it's enough to keep people excited that they could at the beginning. 

There is very little collateral damage this season (Dead Outlaw, Boop). Even 'The Last Five Years' is doing ok business. 

Overall, I think it's been one of the strongest and most exciting seasons we've ever had. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 02:25 AM

[MezzA101]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 7:28am

Jesse Green: Who Should Be a Tony Awards Nominee in 2025?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/theater/critic-tony-awards-nominees.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DU8.9Ia_.qQYg-D1tWxyT&smid=nytcore-android-share

[binau]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 8:25am

WOW. Jesse Green suggesting he doesn't think Sunset, Jamie Lloyd or Nicole should even be NOMINATED?

As if I couldn't think less of him, at this point Jesse Green has 0 credibility in my opinion as a theatre critic. Worthless and embarrassing that the NYT has him. I want Ben Brantley back. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 08:25 AM

[Kad]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 8:27am

Well… Green has certainly made it clear which productions he does not like. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 8:42am

I just went back and re-read Green’s DBH review and forgot how positive it was despite not being a critic’s pick. Meanwhile, he seems to have soured a bit on Redwood.

Also interesting that despite being a huge MHE fan, he only nominates Criss.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 11:26am

MezzA101 said: "Jesse Green: Who Should Be a Tony Awards Nominee in 2025?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/theater/critic-tony-awards-nominees.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DU8.9Ia_.qQYg-D1tWxyT&smid=nytcore-android-share"

What a joke. 

[kdogg36]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 11:28am

Jarethan said: "That is Just in Time, which is probably due to Jonathan Groff's draw;and it is probably not clear at this point whether that will continue as long as Groff is in the show or whether it will die down once his mega-fans have seen the show?"

I don't think Operation Mincemeat has been on TKTS very often, but that seems to be part of a strategy to avoid offering advance discounts (though there are some affordable regular-price tickets).

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 11:46am

When's the "Meet the Nominees" press junket this year? The day of nominations?

 

[Laurapattifan]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:09pm

EDSOSLO858 said: "When's the "Meet the Nominees" press junket this year? The day of nominations?

"

Haven't kept track post-pandemic, but usually it is the following day.

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:12pm

I wouldn't take Jessie Green's "Who Should be a Tony Nominee" article too seriously. By including productions and performances that aren't even Tony eligible, it's really just a puff piece indicating his personal favorites of the New York season. No Tony nominator is going to be influenced by his exclusions.

[kidmanboy]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:39pm

Green's exclusion of Operation Mincemeat almost everywhere and inclusion of Redwood in choreography are particularly outlandish.  I don't claim to have a crystal ball, but even with lots of uncertainty, its certain the nominations will look nothing like his picks. 

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:49pm

I think it’s fair at this point to say that Green gets off a bit on being contrarian or trying to appear to have surprising takes, so his opinions on shows or who should win awards are not something to be taken super seriously.

 

I think this was the season where the Times relinquished any serious cred it has in critics to Vulture’s Sara Holdren—who is the true person leading the charge in theater criticism right now. 

[binau]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:51pm

I also don't understand how he can give Redwood a critic's pick but then also not believe it should have many nominations. I think my issue with Jesse Green is he seems irrational and unpredictable to me. I just don't get him. He gives out far too many critics picks but not to the shows that deserve it - BUT THEN he doesn't even stand behind the shows he is championing? He is the one that made strange comparisons between Sunset Boulevard, Tammy Faye and Cinderella as if Sunset Boulevard belongs in the same category. He was the only one that didn't give seem to enjoy the Patti Company. In some ways maybe he is a perfect critic because all I need to know whether I will enjoy something or not is look at Jesse Green's views and assume I will believe the opposite. 

Whereas Ben Brantley was a lot easier to understand, starting with his deep love and diva worship, his deep love of Sondheim. It kind of all made sense. Jesse Green is like Alice Ripley's smile in next to normal - a bit off. 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:52pm

QueenAlice said: "I wouldn't take Jessie Green's "Who Should be a Tony Nominee" article too seriously. By including productions and performances that aren't even Tony eligible, it's really just a puff piece indicating his personal favorites of the New York season. No Tony nominator is going to be influenced by his exclusions."

I agree.  These are some of THE WORST predictions.  It was clear from his review he dislikes SUNSET as a show even before this production.  There is a lot of mess in this article.  His taste is off even with theater being subjective.

[gibsons2]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 12:57pm

MezzA101 said: "Jesse Green: Who Should Be a Tony Awards Nominee in 2025?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/theater/critic-tony-awards-nominees.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DU8.9Ia_.qQYg-D1tWxyT&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Bro lost the last crumbs of credibility with this list (if he ever had any). Erratic and illogical. Reminds me of someone in politics. 

Are there no consequences anymore at NYT to come up with absurd stuff like that? Because if so, any opinionated random redditor can write similar articles for NYT and get away with it. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 12:57 PM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/29/25 at 1:16pm

Year after year, I hate that's it's referred to as "should be Tony nominees" and then includes non-eligible productions and non-existant categories. So. Dumb.

Just call it your personal awards and be done with it. It has nothing to do with the Tonys.