Tony Awards Predictions (All Categories) — Page 2

Does anyone think there’s a chance that Mincemeat is left out of the Best Musical category? I certainly enjoyed it but I don’t know that it’s the lock many people are thinking it is…?

The Tony awards nominations will always be full of surprises and sometimes have WTF moments so I think I’ll just go out on a limb and sprinkle some left of field choices and unpopular omissions.  

 

Best Musical

Maybe Happy Ending

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Operation Mincemeat

Real Women Have Curves 

 

Best Play

Purpose

English

John Proctor is the Villain

Oh Mary!

The Hills of California

 

Revival of a Musical

Gypsy

Pirates! The Penzance Musical

Sunset Blvd.

Floyd Collins

 

Revival of a Play

Eureka Day

Glengarry Glen Ross

Our Town

Yellow Face

 

Lead Actor in a Musical

Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

David Cumming, Operation Mincemeat 

Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.

Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

 

Lead Actress in a Musical

Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.

Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her

Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

Tatianna Cordoba, Real Women Have Curves

Natasha Hodgson, Operation Mincemeat 

 

Featured Actor in a Musical

Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

David Thaxton, Sunset Blvd.

Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw

Brooks Ashmanskas, Smash

 

Featured Actress in a Musical

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves

Clair Marie-Hall, Operation Mincemeat 

Zoe Roberts, Operation Mincemeat 

Jinkx Monsoon, Pirates! The Penzance Musical

 

Lead Actor in a Play

Cole Escola, Oh Mary!

Jake Gyllenhaal, Othello

George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck

Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet

Jon Michael Hill, Purpose

 

Lead Actress in a Play

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Mia Farrow, The Roommate

LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose

Sadie Sink, John Proctor is the Villain

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California

 

Featured Actor in a Play

Conrad Ricamora, Oh Mary!

Bill Burr, Glengarry Glen Ross

Bill Irwin, Eureka Day

Francis Jue, Yellow Face

Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross

 

Featured Actress in a Play

Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Bianca Leigh, Oh Mary!

Amalia Yoo, John Proctor is the Villain

Alana Arenas, Purpose

Kara Young, Purpose

 

Original Score

Dead Outlaw

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

Death Becomes Her

Real Women Have Curves

 

Book of a Musical

Operation Mincemeat

Maybe Happy Ending

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Real Women Have Curves

 

Direction of a Musical

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

David Cromer, Dead Outlaw

George C. Wolfe, Gypsy

Michale Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

Robert Hastie, Operation Mincemeat

 

Direction of a Play

Sam Pinkleton, Oh Mary!

Knud Adams, English

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Phylicia Rashad, Purpose

Steven Daldry and Justin Martin, Stranger Things

Jarethan said: "Is anyone finding it surprising that, despite there being a sizable number of really well-reviewed musicals and revivals this season -- and how long has it been since we have had so manywell reviewed musicals that will not be nominated for best musical -- there is only one of them that isnot regularly at TKTS.

That is Just in Time, which is probably due to Jonathan Groff's draw;and it is probably not clear at this point whether that will continue as long as Groff is in the show or whether it will die down once his mega-fans have seen the show?

In any event, this season does not appear to have opened a single musical that will 'obviously' have real Broadway legs, i.e., run a minimum of three years with profitable business, and return its investment and make at least a decent return on its investment.Not a 'smash' among them, no pun intended.

I am sure that I am coming across as a doomsayer, but I just find it really disappointing.

"

I feel like it sort of makes sense. Last year was full of big IP shows - Back to the Future, The Great Gatsby, The Notebook, Hell's Kitchen (Alicia Keys), The Outsiders. Aside from HK and The Outsiders, none were big critical successes but all except The Notebook have/had pretty solid runs.

This year is a lot more niche which will lead to better critical notices but less interest from the general public. So I feel like it all tracks. 

I guess because I myself have niche theatre interests I personally don't mind that we don't have another 'mega hit'. I don't want the real estate clogged up for years, and I tend to gravitate towards the smaller shows anyway. 

As long as the box office is healthy enough to convInce investors to keep losing their money, I'm happy - and I think this season has given plenty reason for investors to part their money in future. This season has proven that a 'little artistic show' (Maybe Happy Ending) can build an audience from nothing, that you can revive a legendary show for the 35th time (Gypsy) and still get people in the door, that a scrappy little British show with no names can generate some interest (Operation Mincemeat), that there is such thing as a real theatre star who can sell tickets even today (Just In Time), that Sondheim can sell (Old Friends), that the law of a-list celebrities selling tickets still stands (Othello & Clooney play), that you can create an event and have a decent run with someone who isn't really a 'star' but becomes a star in the role (Nicole S). It may not be enough for any of these shows to actually turn a profit, but it's enough to keep people excited that they could at the beginning. 

There is very little collateral damage this season (Dead Outlaw, Boop). Even 'The Last Five Years' is doing ok business. 

Overall, I think it's been one of the strongest and most exciting seasons we've ever had. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 02:25 AM

WOW. Jesse Green suggesting he doesn't think Sunset, Jamie Lloyd or Nicole should even be NOMINATED?

As if I couldn't think less of him, at this point Jesse Green has 0 credibility in my opinion as a theatre critic. Worthless and embarrassing that the NYT has him. I want Ben Brantley back. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 08:25 AM

I just went back and re-read Green’s DBH review and forgot how positive it was despite not being a critic’s pick. Meanwhile, he seems to have soured a bit on Redwood.

Also interesting that despite being a huge MHE fan, he only nominates Criss.

Jarethan said: "That is Just in Time, which is probably due to Jonathan Groff's draw;and it is probably not clear at this point whether that will continue as long as Groff is in the show or whether it will die down once his mega-fans have seen the show?"

I don't think Operation Mincemeat has been on TKTS very often, but that seems to be part of a strategy to avoid offering advance discounts (though there are some affordable regular-price tickets).

EDSOSLO858 said: "When's the "Meet the Nominees" press junket this year? The day of nominations?

"

Haven't kept track post-pandemic, but usually it is the following day.

Green's exclusion of Operation Mincemeat almost everywhere and inclusion of Redwood in choreography are particularly outlandish.  I don't claim to have a crystal ball, but even with lots of uncertainty, its certain the nominations will look nothing like his picks. 

I also don't understand how he can give Redwood a critic's pick but then also not believe it should have many nominations. I think my issue with Jesse Green is he seems irrational and unpredictable to me. I just don't get him. He gives out far too many critics picks but not to the shows that deserve it - BUT THEN he doesn't even stand behind the shows he is championing? He is the one that made strange comparisons between Sunset Boulevard, Tammy Faye and Cinderella as if Sunset Boulevard belongs in the same category. He was the only one that didn't give seem to enjoy the Patti Company. In some ways maybe he is a perfect critic because all I need to know whether I will enjoy something or not is look at Jesse Green's views and assume I will believe the opposite. 

Whereas Ben Brantley was a lot easier to understand, starting with his deep love and diva worship, his deep love of Sondheim. It kind of all made sense. Jesse Green is like Alice Ripley's smile in next to normal - a bit off. 

MezzA101 said: "Jesse Green: Who Should Be a Tony Awards Nominee in 2025?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/theater/critic-tony-awards-nominees.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DU8.9Ia_.qQYg-D1tWxyT&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Bro lost the last crumbs of credibility with this list (if he ever had any). Erratic and illogical. Reminds me of someone in politics. 

Are there no consequences anymore at NYT to come up with absurd stuff like that? Because if so, any opinionated random redditor can write similar articles for NYT and get away with it. 

Updated On: 4/29/25 at 12:57 PM