Jordan Catalano said: "People forget that Audra's last two shows on Broadway ("Frankie & Johnny" and "Ohio State Murders"
had something like a 25% weekly attendance and average price of $1.25 per ticket. So people may love her but we have proof that just her alone isn't enough to get people into the theater. It will be very interesting to see how long those seats stay at $400."
Audra Singing >>>>> Audra Not Singing
With that said, this will be a HUGE test of her box office power. She has never been a huge draw and I don't think her career has risen significantly since the last time she headlined a musical.
- PORGY didn't sell out a single week of its run (with 300 less seats per night) and did not recoup.
- LADY DAY recouped and filled the house decently well –– but the capacity was less than half of the Majestic (680 seats), she only did 7 shows a week, and it was dirt cheap.
- SHUFFLE sold well in the 800-900K a week range (at just 1080 seats a night) but only ran 19 weeks and, had she stayed with it, might have softened. (see: War Paint, Carousel, Company)
Could it have some million-dollar weeks in the beginning of the run? Absolutely, the fans will flock in early. Could love-letter raves help? Maybe, but LuPone's GYPSY had raves too, opened near the Tonys, closed early, and lost money. If we assume it's starting strong, March would be the time where it shows signs of sagging (about 16 weeks into the run) based on past comps. They'll also be trying to move lots of tickets in the dead of winter.
The producers wanting a Bryan Cranston/Paul Giamatti type or a Zendaya/H.E.R. type is very different than actually securing those people –– and securing them at a pricetag that would not balloon the running costs out of proportion when Wolfe and Audra won't be working for cheap.
If we assume it'll have a cast of 25-35 actors (as is typical for Gypsy when you need multiple children, young adults, and older adults) and an orchestra in the 18-25 range, this is going to need to cross $950K or a million per week just to break even.
Updated On: 5/30/24 at 12:45 PM