JBroadway said: "TaffyDavenport said: "the nominees need to have performed on opening night?"
I don't think they're actually strict about that. I think the "opening night" rule is just a way of saying "not a replacement actor, unless that replacement was during previews." That might not be what the rule literally states, but that's the intention behind it, and I think that's how it's generally enforced. It's just a matter of a simple "ruling" from the committee, which would mostly be a formality in a case like this.
I might be misremembering, but wasn't there a case just a few years ago where an actor called out on opening night, but was still Tony eligible?
Even Colin Bates was eligible for Girl From the North Country, after having replaced Colton Ryan post-shutdown. Ryan performed the role in previews, on opening night, and even for the following 1 week of regular performances before COVID. But the nominators don't attend the show so early. They all saw Colin Bates, so they decided he would be eligible instead of Ryan."
OK, I wasn't sure. I'm guessing they'd be more lenient because of COVID anyway, but the only instance I remember in the recent past pre-pandemic was when Andy Karl was injured days before Groundhog Day opened. They couldn't postpone opening because it would push them outside of eligibility, so he did go on, but then took days off afterward.