Jumpin_J said: "The problem here is no one associated with this show is "god of sorts". Susan Strohman. She had a massive hit with The Producers. That was 2000. In the words of Janet Jackson, "what have you done for me lately"? Nearly every show she's done since then has tanked. For LMM, The Disney company has been good to him, but he did Freestyle Love Supreme on Broadway and that tanked. And while John Kander has had many shows, the reality is a handful have been hits, most notably Chicago and Cabaret and Kiss Of The Spider Woman. He still wrote wonderful songs since then, but most of the songs were attached to awful shows. What made anyone think that mashing all of them together would equate a hit show is beyond me."
I don't know what your talking about when it comes to Freestyle Love Supreme. The original 2019-2020 run was a massive hit averaging $740K and 90.7% capacity a week at the Booth with an average ticket price of $137. While yes the 2021-2022 run was averaged only about half that with an average gross of $337K capacity of 74% and ticket price of $80, but remember Freestyle Love Supreme was one of the first shows to reopen on Broadway after the pandemic, when nearly all shows struggled to get audiences into the theater. For a show with no names and just Miranda's name on the marquee is sold on par with both Diana and Girl from the North Country, and Caroline of Change, and nearly tripled the grosses of Slave Play another pre-pandemic limited run with buzz that decided to comeback to a return engagement after the pandemic.
It was Lin Manuel Miranda's association with New York, New York that allowed the show to build up enough of an advance before reviews came out that the show with no names and no identifiable IP attached to hover around $1M a week in ticket sales through the Tony Awards. To those who disagree, Miranda was the one featured in all of the production's more mainstream press appearances and the angle producers could use to get the show booked. I know Colbert is a theater fan, but do you think his producers would allow him to just have a sit-down interview with John Kander and dedicate basically an entire show to New York, New York if Lin Manuel Miranda were not guaranteed to be sitting beside him?
No show nowadays is completely critic proof production unless the show either has a a star with big enough fanbase to sell it or its based on an IP film or musician juggernaut. Once the reviews came in for New York, New York though, the bubble burst for audiences that this would not be the next Hamilton and its not like the show had any other selling points. If the show actually opened to positive reviews and word of mouth, it's early sales indicated it would of been a big hit, it likely wouldn't have turned a profit based on its financials, but it would of at least played a couple of years. Even if the show opened to mixed to positive reviews and lukewarm word of mouth it would of at least made it to January, although I will admit the reported $1.2M operating costs would have been a big hurdle, it could of easily maintained $800K-$900K a week.