Tony Awards aftermath

Curious what made the Shucked performance a mess to you. Besides Independently Owned being a BIT too short, I thought it did a fantastic job highlighting the whole cast a wide variety of their songs. To me, it felt extremely put together and choreographed!

Overall, I would say I'm cautiously bullish on all 5 best musical nominees. Of course Kimberly has it's win(s) and &Juliet is already a hit. But, I'm pretty sure the other three have all made money the past few weeks and it's only going to be getting busier in the City. Maybe reconsider around Labor Day, but I think they may be solid for the moment. Overall though, I'd say New York New York is by far the most likely to close, then Some Like it Hot (because it's expensive to run), and then Shucked.

The only show I'd say is immediately on the chopping block is Life of Pi. I'm sure they'll give it a bit to see if their wins or increased tourism help them. But I doubt it has made money a single week.

Re: Parade, I think it comes down to how well it does over the next month or so, how close it is to recoupment, and if they can find compelling (ticket-selling) leads. If they're still doing well and are, let's say, 3 weeks away from recoupment and they can find solid replacements, then I think they extend. If not, then not.

My claim: Kimberly Akimbo will run for a while. This is a show that managed to survive with barely any advance, no stars and difficult marketing. In other words, it’s purely based on word of mouth. Unlike a strange loop or the band’s visit I think the people who are seeing the show now through the Tony win would be more likely to recommend the show to others because it’s far more accessible and fun. A strange loop had difficult and very niche material. The band’s visit was a very high brow show that I think is sometimes lost on the general public.

perfectpenguin said: "&Juliet and Kimberly Akimbo’s performances did not persuade me to buy tickets. Although neither did Sweeney Todd’s. Truthfully the only one that did was Parade. After seeing the performance and clips from the show,I still don’t see the appeal for Kimberly Akimbo."

Should go see it! It’s an interesting, weird little musical.

I’d love to know what matters most to folks unfamiliar with shows, planning trips to NYC. Or to those folks who may eventually get a touring company. The performance clip? The awards themselves? Name brand recognition?

Having seen most of the nominated, I don’t know that any really sold themselves to the uninitiated. And for shows that have already posted closing notices (e.g., Parade, Funny Girl, Leopoldstadt), those bumps could put some more $ in the coffers. I’m guessing a couple (Sweeney and Juliet) are safe no matter the Tony impact. But performance awards are a double edged swords - folks mar buy seats only to find an understudy on, or that the award recipient has left the show.
At any rate, I guess SLIH may have fared best, in terms of the performance, but I too thought Shucked was a bit of a mess, NYNY should have done Wine &Peaches, and…out of context, I’m not sure any one number will sell KA.

With its win, I think KA will make it until at least January.

I think NYNY, SLIH, Shucked and Camelot are all safe through the summer but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them close late Aug or Sep.

I could see Parade extending without Platt.

Obviously Sweeney is fine until Groban leaves and & Juliet will be fine for awhile.

Mr. Wormwood said: "With its win, I think KA will make it until at least January.

I think NYNY, SLIH, Shucked and Camelot are all safe through the summer but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them close late Aug or Sep."

Camelot had previously announced a Sept 3rd closing date ---last night only confirms it will not be extended again

KA and SLIH definitely bought themselves some time for sure. SLIH can spin their Best Musical wins from other bodies into the marketing as well as their 4 Tonys.

& Juliet is safe. Shucked has been on an upward trend and tickets are staying at accessible prices (unless that changed after last night). I think NY/NY may be the first one to fold - which is a damn shame considered this is probably Kander’s last hurrah, but the show is so terrible and the Tonys performance was not good. (Why was Colton slurring his words? He was so hard to understand)

In terms of revivals, I doubt Camelot will extend past September 3rd, since the tepid reception and lack of awards don’t muster a case for it (unless LCT has nothing waiting in the wings). Sweeney is safe through January and, depending on if they are recasting, will close then. Parade seems to be the big toss-up - I can’t see this surviving without Ben Platt. Maybe a brief extension to Labor Day? It’s hard to tell since they now have this awards boost but who knows?

Does Platt have anything lined up next? If they can get him to extend, by all means they should continue at least til September/October (how it would do beyond that is TBD).

I do think SLIH will buck trends and see its grosses go up, though I don’t know if it makes it into 2024. Shucked gone by Labor Day.

Kimberly MIGHT make it to one year but the grosses that come out June 20 and 27 and July 5 will tell us a lot. And then it will have to sustain that bump.

Curious about CAMELOT, which can’t afford to drop too much. It’s on sale through September 3, and I don’t know what else LCT has planned.

BTTF and HLL could definitely take some steam away from 2022-23 shows.

Updated On: 6/12/23 at 10:47 AM

OhHiii said: "binau said: "My claim: Kimberly Akimbo will run for a while. This is a show that managed to survive with barely any advance, no stars and difficult marketing. In other words, it’s purely based on word of mouth. Unlike a strange loop or the band’s visit I think the people who are seeing the show now through the Tony win would be more likely to recommend the show to others because it’s far more accessible and fun. A strange loop had difficult and very niche material. The band’s visit was a very high brow show that I think is sometimes lost on the general public."

Kimberly will see the same fate as all of these smaller. More niche shows of The Band’s Visit, Fun Home and A Strange Loop. 100%. It’s helped by being in a smaller house, but it will not run longer than any of those 3 except maybe Loop."

How do you measure success? Fun Home and Band’s Visit both recouped and had successful tours and Fun Home is being widely produced regionally (and I expect KA will be, too, given its cast makeup). Shows like these were never going to be hits that run for a decade but they become part of the canon just the same.

Updated On: 6/12/23 at 11:13 AM

What’s next at the St James ?

I long ago quit trying to guess what will happen next or how folks who attend theater irregularly make their choices when coming to NYC. I've been seeing too much for too long to have any objective perspective at this point and am frequently shocked by what excites others.

That said, I would not be surprised if SLIH gets a decent bump from last night as it has the attributes of what many people seem to deem "good theater." I think the Kimberly Akimbo assessment of making it to year's end seem reasonable if the next few weeks show a good box office gain.

I wouldn't bring children to see this show, but definitely teenagers. I brought my 17-year-old sister and she loved it! She said it was one of the funniest shows she's ever seen!