Six vs. A Strange Loop: The Tightest Tony Race of 2022? — Page 2

I am firmly in the Strange Loop camp, and truly believe it will be well-rewarded come Tony night. A lot has happened in the last few years and it seems, to me, that a win for Loop would say a lot more about the direction Broadway should ideally like to be taking.

I have been hearing the opinion from industry folks that Six is great fun but very slight, and that is absolutely going to be something a lot of voters will be weighing.

However, I was a Lortel nominator-voter for 19-20, when Strange Loop premiered. In our deliberations, I was one of several advocating for it, and the muted response from others was discernible. Octet ended up taking Best Musical that year. The parallel of course is not perfect- Octet was an ambitious and technically impressive, but also a deeply weird, idiosyncratic show- but it seemed clear to me that it was the "safe" option for some folks.

BdwyFan said: "Agree with you. SIX will win. Purely based upon the breakdown of the Tony Voters. 40% American Theater Wing, 10-15% Road Presenters. And I enjoyed Loop."

Considering Six is already on a national tour that is doing quite well already without the Tony win, and A Strange Loop, is "struggling" to put butts in seats in the more "progressive" NY market, your argument is working against you. Road Presenters will who are economically and profit focused in their ballots are much more likely to vote for A Strange Loop so they can have multiple successful new musicals out on tour. Its why Avenue Q beat Wicked, Once beat Newsies, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder beat Beautiful, Fun Home beat An American in Paris. I am not saying all of the winning musicals did not deserve their wins, but in the annual anonymous interviews with voters, this argument came up as to why they were voting for the more artistic show that's a commercial risk over the more proven commercially viable one.

Add to that if A Strange Loop looses to Six after already winning the Pulitzer, and its subject matter....ummm I don't think Tony voters will want to deal with the backlash. Its loss would ironically prove the central thesis of A Strange Loop, that there is not a place on Broadway for Big Black and Queer men.

I have nothing against Six, but even when it was first announced and supposed to a part of the 2019-2020 Broadway season it was up against the crowd pleaser of Moulin Rouge, the mix of artistic meets commercial Jagged Little Pill, the wild card of Sing Street, and the artistic front runner Girl from the North Country. If the season went as initially intended Six wouldn't of even been considered a part of the horse race for Best Musical between Girl from the North Country and Moulin Rouge.

In the new post covid 2021-2022 season the only reason its a part of the horse race is because Girl from the North Country closed so quickly when Broadway re-opened in 2021. If it was able to maintain a Spring reopening as was intended during its initial production plan, this seasons horse race would be Girl from the North Country vs A Strange Loop.

One of the biggest things working against Six is that outside of Best Score for a Best New Musical there aren't many other categories where it even looks to be competitive. Most of the technical awards will be split between the lavish revivals or a true artistic masterpiece that is the revival of Company, where the symbolism in the set, costumes, sound, and lighting design is beautifully clear to the audience. Its not competitive in any of the acting categories, mostly because producers couldn't convince the nominating committee to consider the six queens as a joint featured actress. Best Choreography will go to one of the revivals or MJ. Best Direction is a toss up between Company and A Strange Loop. Best Book is between A Strange Loop and Girl from the North Country. Lastly the only other category where of Best Orchestrations may also go to one of the revivals, but if not it will likely be the "bandwagon" indicator of what will be crowned Best Musical.

This is compared to A Strange Loop, which is competitive in Book, Score, Direction, Best Actor, and Orchestrations, and might also pick up a technical award or two.

Updated On: 5/6/22 at 12:47 PM

Add to that if A Strange Loop looses to Six after already winning the Pulitzer, and its subject matter....ummm I don't think Tony voters will want to deal with the backlash. Its loss would ironically prove the central thesis of A Strange Loop, that there is not a place on Broadway for Big Black and Queer men.

This. All of it.

I don't believe anyone accused you of either one of those things. In my opinion, you are underestimating how big of a deal it is to have a show like A Strange Loop on Broadway.

EllieRose2 said: "In my opinion, you are underestimating how big of a deal it is to have a show like A Strange Loop on Broadway."

I think it’s fabulous that it’s on Broadway. But why does that mean it should win a Tony by default?

It's really not much of a race. A Strange Loop has Best Musical in the bag. And Best Book. Maybe SIX can take Best Score, as one can definitely make the argument that the songs there are the bigger earworms.

But I don't think any musical this season comes close to the ambition on display in A Strange Loop. It's unapologetic telling of the black, gay experience is game changing, and it is a story that speaks to RIGHT NOW.

Plus, we have seen time and again that shows which appeal directly to younger theatergoers (ie under 30) can struggle to be nominated or win (Be More Chill, Significant Other, title of Show, etc). SIX is obviously much more successful than those shows, and has broader appeal (but I would say the folks leading the charge to make it an international sensation are fairly young). SIX is a fantastic night out at the theater, but it really isn't even in the same league of storytelling as A Strange Loop. It will easily win Musical, Book, and Lead Actor. And potentially Score, Lighting Design, and Orchestrations (best musical frontrunners often have an advantage there). SIX has zero guaranteed wins, just potential wins in score, costumes, and sound (none of which are remotely guaranteed). And it will likely have zero acting nominations.

Many Tony races are wide open right now. Best Musical is not one of them.

blaxx said: "Y'all put way too much weight on the Tonys. The awards are biased recognition, they're not an absolute truth.

It's just a dozen random professionals casting a vote, not the judgment from the Theater God.

The decision will only be properly assessed with time."

Considering the "weight" of the Tonys literally spells doom or success for a most new shows, think it's pretty valid to discuss the topic as it relates to the most consequential award of the evening. It's no secret that A Strange Loop will need the Tony to survive. Unlike the Oscars or other film Awards, the Tonys affect a living, breathing industry and is often responsible for keeping new, boundary pushing work on the main stem for long past when they would otherwise. There are exceptions, but scoffing at people having this conversation doesn't make you look cooler than anyone else.

Appears you don't know much about the Tonys either given 700 voters across disciplines (acting, technical, composers, lyricists, producers, road presenters, etc) does not equal "a dozen random professionals"

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I’m concerned that the identity of the show’s creator and its protagonist is having an impact on peoples’ ability to criticize it. I basically got accused of being racist and homophobic on this thread alone simply for saying that I found it to be convoluted. To me, the show read like a messy therapy session instead of a focused, well put together show. But if I dare say that, I’m apparently an affront to the black, queer experience."

To clarify, calling the message of a show that is so direct and authentic about what its message is, convoluted does raise an eyebrow. Maybe poor word choice, but the message is in no way convoluted as you said. And as your comment is in reference to my post, I don't believe I said the words racist nor homophobic once. You filled those blanks in yourself.

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "It's really not much of a race. A Strange Loop has Best Musical in the bag. And Best Book. Maybe SIX can take Best Score, as one can definitely make the argument that the songs there are the bigger earworms.

But I don't think any musical this season comes close to the ambition on display in A Strange Loop. It's unapologetic telling of the black, gay experience is game changing, and it is a story that speaks to RIGHT NOW.

Plus, we have seen time and again that shows which appeal directly to younger theatergoers (ie under 30) can struggle to be nominated or win (Be More Chill, Significant Other, title of Show, etc). SIX is obviously much more successful than those shows, and has broader appeal (but I would say the folks leading the charge to make it an international sensation are fairly young). SIX is a fantastic night out at the theater, but it really isn't even in the same league of storytelling as A Strange Loop. It will easily win Musical, Book, and Lead Actor. And potentially Score, Lighting Design, and Orchestrations (best musical frontrunners often have an advantage there). SIX has zero guaranteed wins, just potential wins in score, costumes, and sound (none of which are remotely guaranteed). And it will likely have zero acting nominations.

Many Tony races are wide open right now. Best Musical is not one of them."

If SIX doesn't win lighting design, I would be personally very disappointed.

@Kathy Well, its possible SIX wins Lighting, but not the most likely outcome I think. Many recent musicals have had "concert style" lighting. And they have all lost the Tony, or not even been nominated in the lighting category. I too think the lighting design is superb and a standout. But just looking at the tastes of Tony voters based on recent winners, this design style puts SIX at a disadvantage in this category I think

There is no doubt in my mind that A Strange Loop will take Best Musical and Book. Score, however, I think it the real race. Six played a very smart trump card in releasing the live cast album right before voting is to start because the recording really elevates the score to a new level like the concept album did not.

I think back to the 2017 awards. With DEH was ruling the night and then suddenly a somewhat (at the time) surprise director win for CFA. It felt back then as if the voters wanted to reward CFA for something and somehow enough of them picked to vote them for director that it pushed them over the edge. I feel like that same thing may happen here.

I feel like there very well could be enough voters that are going to be looking to give something of value to Six. The actresses will likely be shut out of leading, so that's out. It's not going to win set (likely won't even be nominated). And I think voters that REALLY want to give Six something will find Costumes to not be enough for it. But Score? Giving Six score and Strange Loop book would result in all the main creators of the two best new musicals of the season all walking away with something in their hands and then in the end, Strange Loop will still win the Best Musical and get to market itself as the "Tony Award Winning Best New Musical" while Six gets to market the most important part of it's show, "Tony Award Winning Score." It's a win win situation for both shows and fans of both shows as well.

7 of the 9 musicals that have been awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Drama have also won the Tony for Best Musical (Next to Normal was the other loser, falling to Billy Elliot).
I’m not counting A Strange Loop yet because its Tony status is still pending. However, the odds are in their favor - and the consensus on GoldDerby agrees.